Rosamilia is out; updated odds are in

ROSAMILIA

With Mayor Lou Rosamilia’s decision to not seek re-election I guess now would be a good time to update the odds for who will run for the city's top office later this year. Vegas is a bit overwhelmed thanks to some college basketball tournament, but bookmakers were able to put together preliminary odds on potential Democratic candidates running for mayor and promised to have some odds on the Republican candidates tomorrow.

First, though, I’ve got to say the mayor’s decision came as no surprise. He was in way too far over his head to make good decisions on his own and did not have the right people giving him advice. They were either over their heads themselves (Pete Ryan, Ian Silverman and Mike Morris) or they had their own agendas (Bill Dunne and about every other department head and employee in the city.) Of the three mayors since the city changed its governing structure, Rosamilia may have been the nicest mayor but he was also the worst. 

WILTSHIRE

More on Rosamilia’s rocky one-term later. Tonight, we look to the future. The odds are known to change with the smallest of ripples or whispers or posts on Facebook but as of March 23 sometime after 9 p.m. this is where they stand on who will run, not on who will win. Those will come later too.

For the Dems:

-Rodney Wiltshire: The Times Union is reporting that the council president could announce as soon as March 4. Earlier, he said he would not primary Rosamilia but I think he gave up on that pledge long ago and had been planning to run for a while. He is a solid candidate with the Council presidency under his belt, has better than average name recognition and a good presence in front of the cameras. He will not – or very likely not – have the support of the Democratic Party proper and that means he will probably have to run a primary. He will also likely not enjoy the Independence Party backing he got from the GOP that propelled him to the presidency. ODDS of him running stand at even money.

-Ernest Everett: The little known candidate already has a Facebook page touting his candidacy and has raised some money for a run. He maintains he spent some of that money at places like Hooters and Kokopellis and other bars and restaurants to hold campaign pow wows with key advisers but it will still come back to haunt him - should he opt to continue his run. Whether or not he gets party support is up in the air but since it was the Democrats who initially leaked the campaign summits at Hooters I’m guessing not. ODDS of him staying the race stand at 5 to 1.

MANNY

Ed Manny: The county legislator wanted to run four years ago but the nod went first to Clement “Chappy” Campana and then to Rosamilia. The retired firefighter is, however, a party loyalist but the only way the Democrats pick him is if everyone else turns them down and they find themselves in a jam. Kinda like how Rosamilia got the endorsement. And Rosamilia, for better or worse, won. ODDS of him running are 7 to 1.

Cindy Doran: Another county legislator who is loyal to the party has shown an affinity for politics during her first term in office. The teacher in the Troy school district got some press – that boosted her name recognition – by calling for the chairman of the Legislature, Martin Reid, to resign and for her criticism of District Attorney Joel Abelove. ODDS of her running are 12 to 1.  

DORAN

Clement “Chappy” Campana: He was the party’s pick four years ago but his involvement in voter fraud, and more importantly his use of political influence to get his father into one of the nicer Troy Housing Authority apartments, dogged his campaign to the point that Rensselaer County Chairman Tom Wade chased him off the ballot. Wise move on Wade’s part. But, Campana does have a following, solid name recognition and, if you think about it, Wade owes him one. ODDS of him running are 12 to 1.

Lynn Kopka: The city councilwoman’s name was in the mix three-plus years ago, didn’t get the endorsement and ran for the legislative seat instead. She was elected president for two years and then lost that seat to Wiltshire and then nearly lost her Council seat altogether. She is however, a party proper person, which means she is in Wade’s corner and has been the front man (woman) against those Democrats who are not (i.e. Wiltshire.) ODDS of her running are 17 to 1.   

KOPKA

-Bill Dunne: The former eight-year councilman and current director of the city’s Planning Department certainly has name recognition – whether it’s for good or bad reasons is a toss-up. He is loyal to the Democratic Party, though, and he is “confident” enough to think he could win. ODDS of him running are 17 to 1.

-Pete Ryan: The current deputy mayor was elected to the Council and then the Legislature. If he should toss his hat in the ring, however, he would have a tough time – if not impossible time – distancing himself from Rosamilia’s many missteps. ODDS of him running are 20 to 1

-Ken Zalewski: During an appearance on @Talk1300, the four-term councilman said he wouldn’t mind being mayor someday but fell well short of saying he would run this year. He would have to take a pay cut, for starters, and he is a staunch supporter of Wiltshire. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.

-Jim Conroy: The former deputy mayor under then Mayor Mark Pattison would probably like to run but he won’t run without party support and that doesn’t seem likely at this point in time. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.

RYAN

Mayor Mark Pattison: After serving eight years in office he’s been out of the public eye for 12 years but unlike Rosamilia he did like the job and would be a formidable candidate should he opt to run. He does, however, have a cushy job at the State Comptroller’s Office so whether he wants to give that up and jump back into the lion’s den is unlikely. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.

Tomorrow I will get the odds for potential Republican candidates and they include Councilman Jim Gordon, former Councilwoman and mayoral candidate Carmella Mantello, former Mayor Harry Tutunjian and former Councilman Mark McGrath.

If I forgot anyone from either party please let me know in the comments or drop me a line at 878-1000 or jfranco961@gmail.com

 

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Term limits, shrinking the size of Troy's Council on the table (CLARIFICATION)

ZALEWSKI

CLARIFCATION: Zalewski said the commission is exploring whether or not it is legal and/or feasible to break out the controversial question of term limits on it's own and have people vote on the rest of the charter changes as a whole.

The Troy Charter Review Commission is discussing two controversial issues as it determines what revisions to make to the city’s governing document.

The abolition of term limits and reducing the size of the Council from nine to seven members – with six district representatives and one for the entire city - are on the table, said Councilman Ken Zalewski, D-District 5, on Talk 1300.

Zalewski, who is serving his fourth and final two-year term under the charter, said a representative from the League of Women Voters, Steve Muller, came to the last commission meeting and made a strong case against term limits. While any change to the charter would not impact Zalewski or any other official currently in office, Zalewski said he appreciates both sides of the age-old term limit argument and is open to changing them in Troy. Zalewski is serving on the commission with eight other members.

He said it makes little sense for federal officials like members of Congress – where big money is often exchanged for influence - to serve as long as voters want them elected while in a relatively tiny City of Troy members of the Council and the mayor can only serve eight years.

Other arguments for term limits include allowing politicians to stay in office too long and getting lazy or corrupt, using the office to campaign for what has become a never-ending election cycle and preventing “new blood” with new ideas from getting into office. Arguments against include forcing a conscientious, hard-working honest politician out of office because an arbitrary number of years has passed and the loss of institutional knowledge for the same reason. It also takes power away from voters who should have the final say if they want someone to stay or go.

To the other hot button issue, Zalewski said there have been nine Council members since Troy’s population was upwards towards 75,000. Now, he said, it is right around 50,000 and three At Large members are not necessary. Also, he said, six people running for three seats can confuse some voters because they may think it is a head to head contest between the two who are lined up across from each other on the ballot rather having the ability to choose any three candidates.

The way Troy’s electoral process is now, the candidate with the highest vote total is the Council president. The president does not have any more power than the other eight members but the president does preside over meetings. By default, if the charter is changed reducing the number of members to seven, candidates would run directly for the presidency.

While there has been some talk of reducing the size of the Council, there has not been any serious move towards that end.

Mayoral term limits, however, became an issue in 2003, then Mayor Mark Pattison’s last year in office. First he asked a sharply divided Council to abolish term limits and while everyone thought then Councilman Bill Pascarell, D-District 4, was going to be the swing vote, Councilman Keith Rogers, D-District 3, broke from his Democratic colleagues and voted to keep them in place.

(As an aside, I was covering Troy at the time and for at least a week prior to the vote Pascarell wouldn’t tell anyone which way he was voting. Or, maybe he told both sides he was with them, I honestly have no idea. But the night of the vote, Pascarell was standing about eight-foot tall when he walked up on the dais, relishing the fact all eyes were on him. Not 30 minutes later, Rogers shocked everyone when he voted with then President Frank LaPosta before Pascarell even had a chance to utter a word. You could almost see him deflate back down to his previous stature of a little shy of five-foot.)

After the Council shot it down, it was put to a referendum where about 75 percent of the electorate said they wanted to keep term limits in place. Also, all those on the Council who supported the move were voted out.

To avoid having what is historically a lightning rod issue – not just in Troy but all over the county – overshadow the other revisions to the charter, Zalewski said the commission is exploring whether or not it can legally put two different versions of the new charter to the voters this November. The two would be identical except one would include abolishing term limits and one would leave them in place.

  

 

  

 

The odds are in for Troy mayoral candidates (UPDATED)

I took a couple weeks off as kind of a mental health vacation. Didn’t work. I get drawn back to #troycrazy like a moth to a flame; like Sen. Chuck Schumer to a TV camera; like Mayor Lou Rosamilia to a misstep; like Carmella Mantello to an election; like Fire Chief Tom Garrett to overtime; like Councilwoman Lynn Kopka to feral cats;  like Bill Dunne to … never mind; and like Kevin McCashion to Twitter.

Over the past few weeks I missed some stuff, but not much. It’s a slow time of year. And, since it is 2015 and there is a mayoral election year in the Collar City, I spent some time talking to the guys in Vegas on the potential candidates for the city’s top spot.

They do a pretty good job of setting the odds on paper, but they grudgingly accept my input on the web of inter-personal relationships, that have been known to cross political lines, and the tit-for-tat grudges that can span years and sometimes snowball for as long.

So, after inputting all the information, these are the odds the super computers in Vegas spit out on who will run for mayor. By run, we mean the candidate will publicly announce an intention, at least make an effort to raise money and, when the time comes, collect the necessary signatures.

First the Democrats (GOP coming tomorrow):

-Mayor Lou Rosamilia: There is no disputing the incumbent has had a tough three years. From new sidewalks in North Central built outside the scope of federal funding; to an arsonist still on the loose; to the ill-conceived appointment of a police commissioner; to the still-being-investigated demolition projects on King Street and the King Fuels site; to the embarrassing Council hearings on the same; to the finances – which might not be all his fault but he is the mayor so the buck (or lack thereof) stops at his desk.

There have been some good things under his watch like new businesses sprouting up and new development in downtown but the age-old complaint that the neighborhoods are being ignored have never been screamed louder or with as much truth.

Plus he makes a good pension from Hudson Valley, is getting up there in age so why would he want to put himself through another four years? Because he is malleable, and the Democrats may beg him until he agrees.

Odds of him running again are 15 to 1.

 

-Council President Rodney Wiltshire: There is no doubting he wants to run, and was setting himself up for a solid independent candidacy by spearheading the abovementioned investigation into the Rosamilia Administration and the demolition projects. Plus, he has a formidable following and some pretty smart political people (Sarah Couch and the Working Family Party types) around him.

But, he didn’t show up for the last two budget votes, the Council, under his leadership, failed to do anything about the financial crisis that will get nothing but worse and the much anticipated report on the demolition projects is still not done. Also, he broke from the party ranks and allied himself with the two GOP members – a move that did help him grab total control of the Council, a power he didn’t handle all that well. And hard line Democrats don’t like it much when one of their own plays footsie with the opposition.  

Odds of him running for mayor are 5 to 1

 

-Brian Howard: The former acting Superintendent of the Enlarged City School District of Troy got his name out there by running a suicide mission against Sen. Kathy Marchione and his name has been floated by Democratic insiders as a candidate untouched by the last three years of chaos.

He doesn’t need a job, obviously likes politics, is well-spoken and is probably looking for something to do. But, it all depends on if Rosamilia runs again or not.

Odds of him running 15 to 1.

 

-Councilwoman Lynn Kopka: She will be the first to say she doesn’t want to be mayor but she is as sly as one of the feral cats she chases around the city. If you remember, she was actively seeking the post four years ago when the nomination went to Clement Campana, who was later forced out of the race when the party decided he had too much baggage and went instead with Rosamilia. She also remained loyal to the party and the party apparatus does have some juice in the city.

But, she did lose the Council presidency she held for two years to Wiltshire which means her city-wide appeal might not be what it once was. Plus, after the last election and the chaos of the last three years, her claims of not wanting the headache do have a ring of truth

Odds of her running 15 to 1

 

-Clement (Chappy) Campana: The former Council president secured the nomination four years ago but was talked out of running by the ever-astute Rensselaer County Democratic Party Chairman Tom Wade because of allegations Campana used his influence to secure an apartment in Troy Housing Authority for his aged father. That hurt him more than voter fraud – a years-long scandal where the charges brought against Campana were later dropped.

That said, he has been out of the scene for a the last four years, which can do nothing but help him, he was elected Council president so he can get votes city-wide, the Democrats have a decisive enrollment advantage, he bowed out gracefully four years ago so he could argue the party owes him one, and the Campana name is still solid.

Odds of him running 25 to 1

-Pete Ryan: As the deputy mayor, the number two man to Rosamilia, Ryan could be in a good position to take over for his current boss should said boss bow out for other reasons than those mentioned above.

But, as the number two man in what is widely seen as a three-year disaster puts him in the same boat as Rosamilia – except worse. Who is he going to blame when taxes are jacked by double figures next year or the year after? The administration he supposedly plays a major role in? Plus, while he is a party loyalist, I don’t think he has the political acumen to run a city wide campaign – the party can only do so much – and that puts him at a distinct disadvantage to someone like Wiltshire or even Kopka.

Odds of him running are 20 to 1.

Cindy Doran: The county legislator can get votes city wide and as a former teacher she has a solid base. But, she lacks any sort of executive experience in the private or public sector so should she run she would almost have to announce the members of the administration – and they would have to be well known and respected municipal administrators – and then run as a team rather than her trying to sell her record to the ever-astute voters of Troy.

Odds of her running are 15 to 1.
Ernest Everett: Thanks to an astute reader, I was told I left out this potential candidate who has already had a fundraiser. The little known potential candidate who recently moved back to the area is one step ahead of the rest of the field in that he has begun to raise money and he has a Facebook Page announcing his intentions.

I don't know much about him, but he was a Republican who switched to the Democratic Party. He is also a black man, who could be a thorn in the party proper's side should he have the guts to stay in the race and run a primary.

Since these odds are about who will potentially run, according to the abovementioned criteria, and after consultation with the stunned brokers in Vegas, we have no choice but to give Everett the odds of even money.  

The odds of rest of the field, which includes county Legislator Ed Manny, who expressed an interest four years ago, Legislator Peter Grimm, who has never expressed an interest, former Mayor Mark Pattison, who loved the job but was term limited out, former Deputy Mayor Jim Conroy, who has always wanted the job stand at 50 to 1.

Tomorrow I will post the Republican odds and candidates include former Councilwoman Carmella Mantello, Councilman Jim Gordon, former Councilman Mark McGrath, former Mayor Harry Tutunjian, former deputy mayor Dan Crawley and mad tweeter Kevin McCashion.          

Newsflash: Mayor Lou is in over his head

ROSAMIlIA

Before I get going on this one let me remind everyone that I was on more than one occasion accused of writing to get a job with Mayor Mark Pattison, a Democrat.

Now that that’s out of the way, I’ve said from the get-go, before he even took office, Mayor Lou Rosamilia was in over his head and about everything that happened over the past two-plus years has done nothing but reinforce that observation.

The latest example was revealed by outgoing City Engineer Russ Reeves at a public hearing on Tuesday. Reeves, under oath, said an engineer, Jack Healey, was lined up to take a look at the wall between the buildings that were knocked down in August, 2013 and the adjacent Bomber’s restaurant but Rosamilia pulled the engineer off because the building’s owner, Don Boyajian, asked him to.

Michael Morris, the new mayor’s spokesman, said the mayor likely didn’t understand the protocol. I have no doubt of that. I don’t think the mayor suddenly had an engineering epiphany telling him a report on the wall wasn’t necessary. I don’t think Boyajian directly contacted the mayor either. I think the attorney used an intermediary like he did on Talk 1300 Wednesday morning to declare his innocence, or ignorance.

DUNNE

That means someone in his administration likely told the mayor to call off the study just before Fire Chief Tom Garrett ordered the buildings demolished while Reeves, who twice denied an emergency demolition permit, was on vacation.

I won’t belabor the King Street demolition or the King Fuels demolition or Scolite bid debacle or the sidewalks in North Central because it’s all been written and federal authorities are looking into it. Reeves told the Council the FBI told him he wasn’t a target which means there are targets out there. It doesn’t take rocket science to figure out who is on the list. I can’t add anything new, really, outside of observing Troy government and its politics for nearly two decades.

That said, I don’t think Rosamilia is malicious. I don’t think he intentionally jeopardized public safety by the King Street or King Fuels demolitions. I think he expects everyone to act with as much integrity as he has. The might be admirable in the cocoon of academia or on the football field but it doesn’t make an effective mayor, especially in a place like Troy where hidden agendas abound and grudges are held for years or even lifetimes.

TUTUNJIAN

The mayor can still be a “nice guy,” but to do the job he needs people, or even one person, he trusts that might not be so nice. Or in the least someone who isn’t afraid to take a stand, put people – employees and otherwise – in their respective place even if it means kicking some butt once in a while.   

For example, Mayor Harry Tutunjian had Deputy Mayor Dan Crawley. Mayor Mark Pattison had a couple people including Owen Goldfarb, Pat Morphy and Mark Streb. Rosamilia really doesn’t have anyone. Bill Dunne, the planning commissioner, is a central figure in all of the above problems, Pete Ryan, the deputy mayor, is in further over his head than Rosamilia, and Ian Silverman, the corporation council who is running for judge, is more focused on getting robes fitted.

PATTISON

Anyone of those people under Tutunjian or Pattison would never have allowed the friction between Dunne and Reeves to fester to the point of boiling over and impacting city business. It simply would not have been allowed and shouldn't have been allowed.

And, it's the mayor's job to be the public face of anything that happens in the city - good or bad. I know Tutunjian and Pattison would have said something to the public if five people got shot under their watch. Last week, we heard nothing from Rosamilia and still haven't.

Councilman Jim Gordon, R-District 1, is calling for Rosamilia’s resignation. A good political move but I don’t see it happening. I’d be willing to bet, though, that Rosamilia can’t wait until his time in office is over in 20 or so months. And actually, a bunch of Trojans probably can’t either.