Rosamilia is out; updated odds are in

ROSAMILIA

With Mayor Lou Rosamilia’s decision to not seek re-election I guess now would be a good time to update the odds for who will run for the city's top office later this year. Vegas is a bit overwhelmed thanks to some college basketball tournament, but bookmakers were able to put together preliminary odds on potential Democratic candidates running for mayor and promised to have some odds on the Republican candidates tomorrow.

First, though, I’ve got to say the mayor’s decision came as no surprise. He was in way too far over his head to make good decisions on his own and did not have the right people giving him advice. They were either over their heads themselves (Pete Ryan, Ian Silverman and Mike Morris) or they had their own agendas (Bill Dunne and about every other department head and employee in the city.) Of the three mayors since the city changed its governing structure, Rosamilia may have been the nicest mayor but he was also the worst. 

WILTSHIRE

More on Rosamilia’s rocky one-term later. Tonight, we look to the future. The odds are known to change with the smallest of ripples or whispers or posts on Facebook but as of March 23 sometime after 9 p.m. this is where they stand on who will run, not on who will win. Those will come later too.

For the Dems:

-Rodney Wiltshire: The Times Union is reporting that the council president could announce as soon as March 4. Earlier, he said he would not primary Rosamilia but I think he gave up on that pledge long ago and had been planning to run for a while. He is a solid candidate with the Council presidency under his belt, has better than average name recognition and a good presence in front of the cameras. He will not – or very likely not – have the support of the Democratic Party proper and that means he will probably have to run a primary. He will also likely not enjoy the Independence Party backing he got from the GOP that propelled him to the presidency. ODDS of him running stand at even money.

-Ernest Everett: The little known candidate already has a Facebook page touting his candidacy and has raised some money for a run. He maintains he spent some of that money at places like Hooters and Kokopellis and other bars and restaurants to hold campaign pow wows with key advisers but it will still come back to haunt him - should he opt to continue his run. Whether or not he gets party support is up in the air but since it was the Democrats who initially leaked the campaign summits at Hooters I’m guessing not. ODDS of him staying the race stand at 5 to 1.

MANNY

Ed Manny: The county legislator wanted to run four years ago but the nod went first to Clement “Chappy” Campana and then to Rosamilia. The retired firefighter is, however, a party loyalist but the only way the Democrats pick him is if everyone else turns them down and they find themselves in a jam. Kinda like how Rosamilia got the endorsement. And Rosamilia, for better or worse, won. ODDS of him running are 7 to 1.

Cindy Doran: Another county legislator who is loyal to the party has shown an affinity for politics during her first term in office. The teacher in the Troy school district got some press – that boosted her name recognition – by calling for the chairman of the Legislature, Martin Reid, to resign and for her criticism of District Attorney Joel Abelove. ODDS of her running are 12 to 1.  

DORAN

Clement “Chappy” Campana: He was the party’s pick four years ago but his involvement in voter fraud, and more importantly his use of political influence to get his father into one of the nicer Troy Housing Authority apartments, dogged his campaign to the point that Rensselaer County Chairman Tom Wade chased him off the ballot. Wise move on Wade’s part. But, Campana does have a following, solid name recognition and, if you think about it, Wade owes him one. ODDS of him running are 12 to 1.

Lynn Kopka: The city councilwoman’s name was in the mix three-plus years ago, didn’t get the endorsement and ran for the legislative seat instead. She was elected president for two years and then lost that seat to Wiltshire and then nearly lost her Council seat altogether. She is however, a party proper person, which means she is in Wade’s corner and has been the front man (woman) against those Democrats who are not (i.e. Wiltshire.) ODDS of her running are 17 to 1.   

KOPKA

-Bill Dunne: The former eight-year councilman and current director of the city’s Planning Department certainly has name recognition – whether it’s for good or bad reasons is a toss-up. He is loyal to the Democratic Party, though, and he is “confident” enough to think he could win. ODDS of him running are 17 to 1.

-Pete Ryan: The current deputy mayor was elected to the Council and then the Legislature. If he should toss his hat in the ring, however, he would have a tough time – if not impossible time – distancing himself from Rosamilia’s many missteps. ODDS of him running are 20 to 1

-Ken Zalewski: During an appearance on @Talk1300, the four-term councilman said he wouldn’t mind being mayor someday but fell well short of saying he would run this year. He would have to take a pay cut, for starters, and he is a staunch supporter of Wiltshire. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.

-Jim Conroy: The former deputy mayor under then Mayor Mark Pattison would probably like to run but he won’t run without party support and that doesn’t seem likely at this point in time. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.

RYAN

Mayor Mark Pattison: After serving eight years in office he’s been out of the public eye for 12 years but unlike Rosamilia he did like the job and would be a formidable candidate should he opt to run. He does, however, have a cushy job at the State Comptroller’s Office so whether he wants to give that up and jump back into the lion’s den is unlikely. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.

Tomorrow I will get the odds for potential Republican candidates and they include Councilman Jim Gordon, former Councilwoman and mayoral candidate Carmella Mantello, former Mayor Harry Tutunjian and former Councilman Mark McGrath.

If I forgot anyone from either party please let me know in the comments or drop me a line at 878-1000 or jfranco961@gmail.com

 

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The odds are in for Troy mayoral candidates (UPDATED)

I took a couple weeks off as kind of a mental health vacation. Didn’t work. I get drawn back to #troycrazy like a moth to a flame; like Sen. Chuck Schumer to a TV camera; like Mayor Lou Rosamilia to a misstep; like Carmella Mantello to an election; like Fire Chief Tom Garrett to overtime; like Councilwoman Lynn Kopka to feral cats;  like Bill Dunne to … never mind; and like Kevin McCashion to Twitter.

Over the past few weeks I missed some stuff, but not much. It’s a slow time of year. And, since it is 2015 and there is a mayoral election year in the Collar City, I spent some time talking to the guys in Vegas on the potential candidates for the city’s top spot.

They do a pretty good job of setting the odds on paper, but they grudgingly accept my input on the web of inter-personal relationships, that have been known to cross political lines, and the tit-for-tat grudges that can span years and sometimes snowball for as long.

So, after inputting all the information, these are the odds the super computers in Vegas spit out on who will run for mayor. By run, we mean the candidate will publicly announce an intention, at least make an effort to raise money and, when the time comes, collect the necessary signatures.

First the Democrats (GOP coming tomorrow):

-Mayor Lou Rosamilia: There is no disputing the incumbent has had a tough three years. From new sidewalks in North Central built outside the scope of federal funding; to an arsonist still on the loose; to the ill-conceived appointment of a police commissioner; to the still-being-investigated demolition projects on King Street and the King Fuels site; to the embarrassing Council hearings on the same; to the finances – which might not be all his fault but he is the mayor so the buck (or lack thereof) stops at his desk.

There have been some good things under his watch like new businesses sprouting up and new development in downtown but the age-old complaint that the neighborhoods are being ignored have never been screamed louder or with as much truth.

Plus he makes a good pension from Hudson Valley, is getting up there in age so why would he want to put himself through another four years? Because he is malleable, and the Democrats may beg him until he agrees.

Odds of him running again are 15 to 1.

 

-Council President Rodney Wiltshire: There is no doubting he wants to run, and was setting himself up for a solid independent candidacy by spearheading the abovementioned investigation into the Rosamilia Administration and the demolition projects. Plus, he has a formidable following and some pretty smart political people (Sarah Couch and the Working Family Party types) around him.

But, he didn’t show up for the last two budget votes, the Council, under his leadership, failed to do anything about the financial crisis that will get nothing but worse and the much anticipated report on the demolition projects is still not done. Also, he broke from the party ranks and allied himself with the two GOP members – a move that did help him grab total control of the Council, a power he didn’t handle all that well. And hard line Democrats don’t like it much when one of their own plays footsie with the opposition.  

Odds of him running for mayor are 5 to 1

 

-Brian Howard: The former acting Superintendent of the Enlarged City School District of Troy got his name out there by running a suicide mission against Sen. Kathy Marchione and his name has been floated by Democratic insiders as a candidate untouched by the last three years of chaos.

He doesn’t need a job, obviously likes politics, is well-spoken and is probably looking for something to do. But, it all depends on if Rosamilia runs again or not.

Odds of him running 15 to 1.

 

-Councilwoman Lynn Kopka: She will be the first to say she doesn’t want to be mayor but she is as sly as one of the feral cats she chases around the city. If you remember, she was actively seeking the post four years ago when the nomination went to Clement Campana, who was later forced out of the race when the party decided he had too much baggage and went instead with Rosamilia. She also remained loyal to the party and the party apparatus does have some juice in the city.

But, she did lose the Council presidency she held for two years to Wiltshire which means her city-wide appeal might not be what it once was. Plus, after the last election and the chaos of the last three years, her claims of not wanting the headache do have a ring of truth

Odds of her running 15 to 1

 

-Clement (Chappy) Campana: The former Council president secured the nomination four years ago but was talked out of running by the ever-astute Rensselaer County Democratic Party Chairman Tom Wade because of allegations Campana used his influence to secure an apartment in Troy Housing Authority for his aged father. That hurt him more than voter fraud – a years-long scandal where the charges brought against Campana were later dropped.

That said, he has been out of the scene for a the last four years, which can do nothing but help him, he was elected Council president so he can get votes city-wide, the Democrats have a decisive enrollment advantage, he bowed out gracefully four years ago so he could argue the party owes him one, and the Campana name is still solid.

Odds of him running 25 to 1

-Pete Ryan: As the deputy mayor, the number two man to Rosamilia, Ryan could be in a good position to take over for his current boss should said boss bow out for other reasons than those mentioned above.

But, as the number two man in what is widely seen as a three-year disaster puts him in the same boat as Rosamilia – except worse. Who is he going to blame when taxes are jacked by double figures next year or the year after? The administration he supposedly plays a major role in? Plus, while he is a party loyalist, I don’t think he has the political acumen to run a city wide campaign – the party can only do so much – and that puts him at a distinct disadvantage to someone like Wiltshire or even Kopka.

Odds of him running are 20 to 1.

Cindy Doran: The county legislator can get votes city wide and as a former teacher she has a solid base. But, she lacks any sort of executive experience in the private or public sector so should she run she would almost have to announce the members of the administration – and they would have to be well known and respected municipal administrators – and then run as a team rather than her trying to sell her record to the ever-astute voters of Troy.

Odds of her running are 15 to 1.
Ernest Everett: Thanks to an astute reader, I was told I left out this potential candidate who has already had a fundraiser. The little known potential candidate who recently moved back to the area is one step ahead of the rest of the field in that he has begun to raise money and he has a Facebook Page announcing his intentions.

I don't know much about him, but he was a Republican who switched to the Democratic Party. He is also a black man, who could be a thorn in the party proper's side should he have the guts to stay in the race and run a primary.

Since these odds are about who will potentially run, according to the abovementioned criteria, and after consultation with the stunned brokers in Vegas, we have no choice but to give Everett the odds of even money.  

The odds of rest of the field, which includes county Legislator Ed Manny, who expressed an interest four years ago, Legislator Peter Grimm, who has never expressed an interest, former Mayor Mark Pattison, who loved the job but was term limited out, former Deputy Mayor Jim Conroy, who has always wanted the job stand at 50 to 1.

Tomorrow I will post the Republican odds and candidates include former Councilwoman Carmella Mantello, Councilman Jim Gordon, former Councilman Mark McGrath, former Mayor Harry Tutunjian, former deputy mayor Dan Crawley and mad tweeter Kevin McCashion.          

Sully is no dummy; councilwoman's change of heart is telling

SULLIVAN-TETA

Councilwoman Erin Sullivan-Teta peeled away from her two Democratic colleagues on Monday’s vote to issue subpoenas in the investigation into controversial demolition projects in the city.

I’ve never met Sullivan-Teta, but a week ago she stood by Councilwoman Lynn Kopka, D-At Large, and Councilman Gary Galuski, D-District 6, as Mayor Lou Rosamilia decried the investigation as a “witch hunt.”

Her change of heart is telling.

For starters, it reinforces what everyone involved Capital Region politics already knows – her brother, Mike Sullivan, is no dummy.

WILTSHIRE

Sullivan worked for former U.S. Rep. Mike McNulty for years and is now across the river working for Gov. Andrew Cuomo somewhere. He is a behind the scenes kind of guy but he knows the game as well as anyone – he learned from one of the best, Tom Matthews, after all - and I’ll be my house his consult was one reason his sister changed her mind.

Since Mike Sullivan, known as Sully, is no dummy, he must see the writing on the wall when it comes to Rosamilia. By that I mean the mayor is in such a weak spot on so many different levels that there is no way he runs again.

And if it’s not the mayor, then who from the camp of Chairman Tom Wade is left?

KOPKA

Kopka considered running when the nod went to Clement “Chappy” Campana more than two years ago and she is the next logical choice. But, she isn’t doing herself any favors by opposing the Council investigation into what is widely seen as a couple pretty big screw ups by members of the administration.

Then there is President Rodney Wiltshire. It’s no secret he has political ambitions and is thus far looking pretty good in what is a dicey situation. Thing is, he alienated the Wade crew by taking the Independence Party line from the Republicans and that helped knock Kopka, a Wade loyalist, out of the presidency last year.

ROSAMILIA

So long as Wade is around, I don’t see Wiltshire getting the nod without a primary and he’s said he won’t primary Rosamilia. That was a while ago and things could change. If it comes down to a primary between Kopka and Wiltshire, the early money is on Wiltshire. Obstructing a Council investigation into what has been the most ineffective borderline corrupt administration in nearly two decades is not something to put on a palm card.

And then what happens to Wade?

I guess there are other Democrats who would made decent candidates like Legislator Peter Grimm, Legislator Cindy Doran, a registered Conservative, or even someone from a while ago like former Deputy Mayor Jim Conroy.

WADE

But, Troy voters, the majority of which are Democrats, have proven they will toss entire slates of either party if they don’t like what’s going on and I don’t see how anyone could like what’s going on right now. There are no less than three federal agencies and a state agency snooping around the Collar City.  

At this point he only thing the Democrats have going for them is the Republican Party. They have nobody, and there are some who would just as soon cross endorse Wiltshire instead of taking a pounding at the polls in November 2015.

Anyway, the vote to issue subpoenas passed by a 7-2 count and the method of issuing them passed 6-3 with Councilman Bob Doherty, D-District 4, voting against. Doherty may have a point in that a document signed by the majority of Council members as opposed to a formal public vote might not hold up to legal scrutiny. I honestly don’t know, and I don’t think anyone does until a judge rules, or if it will even goes that far. While I applaud Wiltshire for doing what he is doing, he is making it more complicated than it has to be. That said, he is plugging along.

Council investigates for the third time in 36 years and some questions to ask

WILTSHIRE

The last time the Troy Council used subpoena power was in 1978. Steve Dworsky was mayor under a city manager form of government and the legislative body was looking into a concept of team policing.

A host of people were compelled to testify including Dorothy Guiot of New Jersey. I won’t go into what it was all about because I was 12 at the time and dare say the only Troy I knew of at that time had to do with a horse. The Council also exercised its investigatory powers in about 2001 when, under President Frank LaPosta, it hired attorney Richard Hanft to look into a questionable federal grant funneled through the office of then Deputy Mayor Jim Conroy to his brother to buy a house part owned by the deputy mayor.

REEVES

Now the Council, under President Rodney Wiltshire, issued subpoenas to soon to be former City Engineer Russ Reeves and his assistant Barbara Tozzi, to find out what went down on King Street and King Fuels other than the buildings.

I’m not sure how the subpoenas were actually issued since I don’t think the Council voted to issue them at a properly called meeting as is required, but odds are Reeves and Tozzi just agreed to testify and the subpoenas were a formality.

While Reeves and Tozzi are more than likely willing participants, you can bet Planning Commissioner Bill Dunne, Deputy Mayor Pete Ryan, Fire Chief Tom Garrett and even Mayor Lou Rosamilia – should any or all of them get called – won’t come without a properly issued subpoena. And even then they could fight it in court, which won’t look good, or they could plead the fifth on some of the more poignant questions the Council will, or should, ask. That won’t look good either. Or they could get up on the stand and tell the truth whatever it may be.

DUNNE

Either way, just by kicking off the investigation, Wiltshire comes out on top politically speaking.

Anyway, Reeves and Tozzi probably won’t tell the Council anything new. Here is a rundown of what they will say and here’s what should be asked about each property:

King Street

What they will say:

-Reeves denied an emergency demolition permit, went on vacation and the building was declared a threat to public safety and ordered taken down by Fire Chief Tom Garrett when Reeves was on vacation.

KING STREET

-Despite knowing there was asbestos in the building, people were allowed to stay in Bomber’s located next door.

Questions to ask:

-Did the building’s owner, Don Boyajian, pay the demolition company, M. Cristo Inc. of East Greenbush?

-Why was the emergency demolition permit denied?

-Who directed Garrett to take the building down?

-Why was it taken down in front of other derelict, vacant buildings in the city?

KING FUELS

-Did someone make a 911 call regarding the building and its condition just prior to the demolition?

King Fuels

This project is a little lessstraight forward in that it was run through the Local Development Corporation, a quasi-governmental body headed up by Dunne.

Here are some questions:

-Why was the initial June, 2013 request for bids withdrawn?

-Why and how, after the initial RFB was withdrawn, were two buildings condemned and taken down under an emergency declaration?

-Why was such short notice given for the submission of a second round of bids – RFB issued on March 1, a Saturday, and bids were due on March 6.

ROSAMILIA

-According to the LDC minutes, Reeves knew of the demolition and the gas line. Did the demolition company, J.R. Casale, just screw up by putting debris on top of the main line that could have caused some serious damage if it was compromised?

-When did Reeves know of the demolition and how involved was he in carrying it out? If not Reeves, did another engineer consult on the demolition as indicated in the minutes and if so let’s see the reports?

-The relationship between Code Enforcement, the Engineering Department, and the Fire Department is a question that has only one answer … there really isn’t one - or not a good one anyway. Everyone is just doing their own thing and it seems that includes stabbing each other in the back. There is only one person to blame for that and it’s Rosamilia. He is the mayor after all, and a strong mayor keeps the troops in line and makes them play nice ... at least in the public eye.

Facebook and ethics (DOCUMENTS)

It appears the Ethics Commission is moving forward with an inquiry into the actions of two Troy councilmen – Council President Rodney Wiltshire and Councilman Bob Doherty, D-District 4.

 It’s been a long time since the Ethics Commission in Troy did or said anything – the last time I remember was back in the 90s when questions arose about then Deputy Mayor Jim Conroy’ and his father’s estate – so I guess in that regard it’s a pleasant turn of events.

It’s been known they were taking a peak at Doherty for his ill-advised visit to the New York State Liquor Authority on behalf of Kokopellis. I’m not sure if he violated any formal ethical obligations he has as an elected representative, but it sure caused quite the stir since … well … the Jan. 25 incident caused quite a stir on a number of different levels.

The commission is looking at Wiltshire because of comments made on social media that said he has a financial interest in the Fourth Street bar. Now, this is just a guess, but if the commission took a look at everything that is said on social media they would be the busiest panel in City Hall history.

As to Doherty, the section of CityCode that deals with ethics is pretty comprehensive and applies to officials across the board – elected and appointed. It specifically states all those covered cannot advocate for another entity that has an interest in front of the city. For example, a Councilman could not appear in front of the Planning Commission on behalf of business looking to open its doors in the city. But, it doesn’t specifically say anything about appearing in front of a state agency.

Doherty told the Times Union he went with the bars’ owners, Barry and Joe Glick, because the business was in his district and to urge the SLA to not take any drastic action, such as close the bar down, until the number of investigations into what transpired on Jan. 25 are complete.

Plausible, I guess, but still ill-advised since there is so much controversy regarding the bar and because Doherty, as chair of the Public Safety Committee, was, at the time, holding hearings on the matter with the goal of reaching an objective conclusion. The SLA, I don’t think, cares too much about anything else – allegations of police brutality, racial tensions or political undertones – except if Kokopellis followed state law or not.

As far as Wiltshire goes, since he is covered under the Code of Ethics he has to disclose all outside business interests within the city and any interest within a mile of the city line. Below is his latest disclosure statement and I’m told the other two are similar and don’t include a mention of any financial interest he has in Kokopellis.

No, I guess it’s not a perfect system in that Wiltshire or anyone else could just not disclose an interest but why would anyone running for public office not want to tell voters he has a financial stake in a city business. I would think having a vested interest in the city’s future would play well to voters.

If I were more cynical, I would say Wiltshire got brought into the mix because of his decision to break from the Democratic Party proper and the administration too.

Anyway, I tip my hat to the Ethics Commission for meeting and actually doing something. Now maybe they will look into others stuff that has happened like the King Street demolition, the North Central sidewalk debacle, or the Scolite bid process. OK, they may not fall under the commission’s auspices … until someone throws it up on Facebook anyway.  

Wiltshire's 2013 Financial statement