Rosamilia is out; updated odds are in

ROSAMILIA

With Mayor Lou Rosamilia’s decision to not seek re-election I guess now would be a good time to update the odds for who will run for the city's top office later this year. Vegas is a bit overwhelmed thanks to some college basketball tournament, but bookmakers were able to put together preliminary odds on potential Democratic candidates running for mayor and promised to have some odds on the Republican candidates tomorrow.

First, though, I’ve got to say the mayor’s decision came as no surprise. He was in way too far over his head to make good decisions on his own and did not have the right people giving him advice. They were either over their heads themselves (Pete Ryan, Ian Silverman and Mike Morris) or they had their own agendas (Bill Dunne and about every other department head and employee in the city.) Of the three mayors since the city changed its governing structure, Rosamilia may have been the nicest mayor but he was also the worst. 

WILTSHIRE

More on Rosamilia’s rocky one-term later. Tonight, we look to the future. The odds are known to change with the smallest of ripples or whispers or posts on Facebook but as of March 23 sometime after 9 p.m. this is where they stand on who will run, not on who will win. Those will come later too.

For the Dems:

-Rodney Wiltshire: The Times Union is reporting that the council president could announce as soon as March 4. Earlier, he said he would not primary Rosamilia but I think he gave up on that pledge long ago and had been planning to run for a while. He is a solid candidate with the Council presidency under his belt, has better than average name recognition and a good presence in front of the cameras. He will not – or very likely not – have the support of the Democratic Party proper and that means he will probably have to run a primary. He will also likely not enjoy the Independence Party backing he got from the GOP that propelled him to the presidency. ODDS of him running stand at even money.

-Ernest Everett: The little known candidate already has a Facebook page touting his candidacy and has raised some money for a run. He maintains he spent some of that money at places like Hooters and Kokopellis and other bars and restaurants to hold campaign pow wows with key advisers but it will still come back to haunt him - should he opt to continue his run. Whether or not he gets party support is up in the air but since it was the Democrats who initially leaked the campaign summits at Hooters I’m guessing not. ODDS of him staying the race stand at 5 to 1.

MANNY

Ed Manny: The county legislator wanted to run four years ago but the nod went first to Clement “Chappy” Campana and then to Rosamilia. The retired firefighter is, however, a party loyalist but the only way the Democrats pick him is if everyone else turns them down and they find themselves in a jam. Kinda like how Rosamilia got the endorsement. And Rosamilia, for better or worse, won. ODDS of him running are 7 to 1.

Cindy Doran: Another county legislator who is loyal to the party has shown an affinity for politics during her first term in office. The teacher in the Troy school district got some press – that boosted her name recognition – by calling for the chairman of the Legislature, Martin Reid, to resign and for her criticism of District Attorney Joel Abelove. ODDS of her running are 12 to 1.  

DORAN

Clement “Chappy” Campana: He was the party’s pick four years ago but his involvement in voter fraud, and more importantly his use of political influence to get his father into one of the nicer Troy Housing Authority apartments, dogged his campaign to the point that Rensselaer County Chairman Tom Wade chased him off the ballot. Wise move on Wade’s part. But, Campana does have a following, solid name recognition and, if you think about it, Wade owes him one. ODDS of him running are 12 to 1.

Lynn Kopka: The city councilwoman’s name was in the mix three-plus years ago, didn’t get the endorsement and ran for the legislative seat instead. She was elected president for two years and then lost that seat to Wiltshire and then nearly lost her Council seat altogether. She is however, a party proper person, which means she is in Wade’s corner and has been the front man (woman) against those Democrats who are not (i.e. Wiltshire.) ODDS of her running are 17 to 1.   

KOPKA

-Bill Dunne: The former eight-year councilman and current director of the city’s Planning Department certainly has name recognition – whether it’s for good or bad reasons is a toss-up. He is loyal to the Democratic Party, though, and he is “confident” enough to think he could win. ODDS of him running are 17 to 1.

-Pete Ryan: The current deputy mayor was elected to the Council and then the Legislature. If he should toss his hat in the ring, however, he would have a tough time – if not impossible time – distancing himself from Rosamilia’s many missteps. ODDS of him running are 20 to 1

-Ken Zalewski: During an appearance on @Talk1300, the four-term councilman said he wouldn’t mind being mayor someday but fell well short of saying he would run this year. He would have to take a pay cut, for starters, and he is a staunch supporter of Wiltshire. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.

-Jim Conroy: The former deputy mayor under then Mayor Mark Pattison would probably like to run but he won’t run without party support and that doesn’t seem likely at this point in time. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.

RYAN

Mayor Mark Pattison: After serving eight years in office he’s been out of the public eye for 12 years but unlike Rosamilia he did like the job and would be a formidable candidate should he opt to run. He does, however, have a cushy job at the State Comptroller’s Office so whether he wants to give that up and jump back into the lion’s den is unlikely. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.

Tomorrow I will get the odds for potential Republican candidates and they include Councilman Jim Gordon, former Councilwoman and mayoral candidate Carmella Mantello, former Mayor Harry Tutunjian and former Councilman Mark McGrath.

If I forgot anyone from either party please let me know in the comments or drop me a line at 878-1000 or jfranco961@gmail.com

 

-

  

AG won't investigate Abelove in Crist case; majority opens minority's mail and finds out first

ABELOVE

     In a Feb. 6 letter to Peter Grimm, the minority leader of the Rensselaer County Legislature, state Attorney General Eric Schneiderman’s office said it would not pursue an investigation into District Attorney Joel Abelove’s decision to drop a case against Rich Crist, the spokesman for the Republicans on the Rensselaer County Legislature.

     “The Public Integrity Unit has carefully reviewed your correspondence and has determined that your complaint does not warrant action at this time,” according to the letter signed by an official in the AG’s office. The signature is not legible. (see the letter below.)

The letter was postmarked Feb. 13, but Grimm and his five colleagues in the minority didn’t receive the letter until Feb. 18. Instead of going directly to that office, it ended up in the majority office and someone there opened and read the letter before delivering it to the proper recipients on the other side of the building. The letter came from the AG’s New York City office and it is unclear when it was delivered to the county building. (See the envelop below)

CRIST

     “What the majority did is inappropriate and possibly illegal,” said Legislator Cindy Doran, D-Troy. “It’s another example of their complete disregard for our office and the voters of Troy.”

     All six Democrats on the Legislature are from Troy.

     Crist was charged with endangering the welfare of a child and harassment stemming from a family dispute he had with his teenage son in July, 2014. A motion to dismiss the charges was not challenged by Abelove’s office. While the disposition may be correct, the controversy came about because Crist worked on Abelove’s DA campaign last year.

     Meanwhile, the six Democrats on the Legislature, in a Feb. 17 memo, called for Abelove to fulfill his duties as DA and investigate Chairman of the Legislature Martin Reid for inappropriately collecting more than $15,000 in unemployment benefits or for the DA to step aside and let a special prosecutor take the case.

REID

 
   “In addition, you should agree that your office has a conflict of interest in proceeding with this case due to the fact that you have employed a relative of Mr. Reid as an assistant district attorney and the political difficulties you may foresee I prosecuting someone who has oversight of your budget,” according to the memo sent by the six democrats.

       An administrative law judge determined Reid willfully and intentionally defrauded the Department of Labor.

     Last week, the Democrats were prepared to call for Reid’s resignation however the chairman cut the meeting short before giving the elected representatives an opportunity to speak.

       Also, Reid, a Republican, did repay the $15,335 he improperly collected, according to an Aug. 4, 2014 receipt from the state Department of Labor Unemployment Insurance Division. I’m not authorized the release the receipt but there was some confusion on whether or not Reid paid back what he owed. The first TU article stated that the money would be taken from any future unemployment benefits Reid receives in the future.

DORAN

       Reid was let go from his state School Board’s Association position and began collecting the maximum unemployment benefit of $405 a week. He failed to tell the Department of Labor, however, that he was making $30,000 a year as chairman. An administrative law judge determined Reid willfully and intentionally committed fraud.
  
     According to the Times Union, the matter was referred to the Rensselaer County District Attorney’s Office. Abelove said he did not receive any such referral and surmised that it must have come while Acting DA Arthur Glass had the helm prior to Abelove’s being sworn in on Jan. 1.

Reid has remained silent on the issue but there are no public plans for him to step down.

      Assemblyman Steve McLaughlin, R-Melrose, an outspoken critic of corruption in state government, recently let Reid go from his staff.

  

   

Minority Letter a g

Envelope

Chairman Reid cuts meeting short to avoid the heat

Rather than face a call for his resignation, Chairman of the Rensselaer County Legislator Martin Reid adjourned Tuesday's monthly meeting before the “Legislator’s Privilege” piece of the agenda - which gives the elected officials the opportunity to speak on whatever is on their minds.

 “Mr. Reid’s actions tonight reinforce why we are calling for his resignation immediately,” said Legislator Len Welcome, D-Troy, one of six Democrats on the 19-member body in a press release. “We had planned to ask Mr. Reid to do the right thing and step down as chairman.”

Reid came under fire after a state Department of Labor administrative law judge found he had “willfully and intentionally misrepresented the facts” in order to collect some $15,300 in unemployment benefits. Reid began collecting after he was let go from a nearly $80,000 job at the state School Boards Association. He failed, however, to tell the DOL he was working as chairman of the Legislature at an annual salary of $30,000.

Reid did reach a settlement with the DOL that includes paying a $2,300 civil fine and repaying the $15,300 out of any future unemployment benefits he receives, according to the Times Union.

The Department of Labor has referred the case to District Attorney Joel Abelove to investigate and possibly prosecute. Abelove has not yet said if he intends to follow through.

“Since that time, numerous constituents have contacted me to express outrage at these findings, which involve the wrongful taking of taxpayer funds and a violation of the public trust,” said Legislator Cindy Doran, D-Troy, in a statement she was prepared to read before Reid cut the meeting short. “I am calling for Chairman Reid to resign his chairmanship post immediately so that the Legislature may move forward under new, unblemished leadership.”

“I believe Chairman Reid’s continuing leadership of the Rensselaer County Legislature is inappropriate and that it will distract from the important work we have been elected to do,” said Legislator Gary Pavlic, D-Troy.

 “What galls me is the fact that he has not repaid the $15,335 which he obtained by dishonesty and deceit,” said Legislator Mark Fleming, D-Troy.

The "Legislator's Privilege" is on the Feb. 10 agenda and is slated or the last item of business before the meeting is adjourned. 

Reid, and the majority’s spokesman Rich Crist, could not be reached for comment.  

(As an aside, this is the first time the Democratic minority has done or said anything of significance in more than a decade.)

The odds are in for Troy mayoral candidates (UPDATED)

I took a couple weeks off as kind of a mental health vacation. Didn’t work. I get drawn back to #troycrazy like a moth to a flame; like Sen. Chuck Schumer to a TV camera; like Mayor Lou Rosamilia to a misstep; like Carmella Mantello to an election; like Fire Chief Tom Garrett to overtime; like Councilwoman Lynn Kopka to feral cats;  like Bill Dunne to … never mind; and like Kevin McCashion to Twitter.

Over the past few weeks I missed some stuff, but not much. It’s a slow time of year. And, since it is 2015 and there is a mayoral election year in the Collar City, I spent some time talking to the guys in Vegas on the potential candidates for the city’s top spot.

They do a pretty good job of setting the odds on paper, but they grudgingly accept my input on the web of inter-personal relationships, that have been known to cross political lines, and the tit-for-tat grudges that can span years and sometimes snowball for as long.

So, after inputting all the information, these are the odds the super computers in Vegas spit out on who will run for mayor. By run, we mean the candidate will publicly announce an intention, at least make an effort to raise money and, when the time comes, collect the necessary signatures.

First the Democrats (GOP coming tomorrow):

-Mayor Lou Rosamilia: There is no disputing the incumbent has had a tough three years. From new sidewalks in North Central built outside the scope of federal funding; to an arsonist still on the loose; to the ill-conceived appointment of a police commissioner; to the still-being-investigated demolition projects on King Street and the King Fuels site; to the embarrassing Council hearings on the same; to the finances – which might not be all his fault but he is the mayor so the buck (or lack thereof) stops at his desk.

There have been some good things under his watch like new businesses sprouting up and new development in downtown but the age-old complaint that the neighborhoods are being ignored have never been screamed louder or with as much truth.

Plus he makes a good pension from Hudson Valley, is getting up there in age so why would he want to put himself through another four years? Because he is malleable, and the Democrats may beg him until he agrees.

Odds of him running again are 15 to 1.

 

-Council President Rodney Wiltshire: There is no doubting he wants to run, and was setting himself up for a solid independent candidacy by spearheading the abovementioned investigation into the Rosamilia Administration and the demolition projects. Plus, he has a formidable following and some pretty smart political people (Sarah Couch and the Working Family Party types) around him.

But, he didn’t show up for the last two budget votes, the Council, under his leadership, failed to do anything about the financial crisis that will get nothing but worse and the much anticipated report on the demolition projects is still not done. Also, he broke from the party ranks and allied himself with the two GOP members – a move that did help him grab total control of the Council, a power he didn’t handle all that well. And hard line Democrats don’t like it much when one of their own plays footsie with the opposition.  

Odds of him running for mayor are 5 to 1

 

-Brian Howard: The former acting Superintendent of the Enlarged City School District of Troy got his name out there by running a suicide mission against Sen. Kathy Marchione and his name has been floated by Democratic insiders as a candidate untouched by the last three years of chaos.

He doesn’t need a job, obviously likes politics, is well-spoken and is probably looking for something to do. But, it all depends on if Rosamilia runs again or not.

Odds of him running 15 to 1.

 

-Councilwoman Lynn Kopka: She will be the first to say she doesn’t want to be mayor but she is as sly as one of the feral cats she chases around the city. If you remember, she was actively seeking the post four years ago when the nomination went to Clement Campana, who was later forced out of the race when the party decided he had too much baggage and went instead with Rosamilia. She also remained loyal to the party and the party apparatus does have some juice in the city.

But, she did lose the Council presidency she held for two years to Wiltshire which means her city-wide appeal might not be what it once was. Plus, after the last election and the chaos of the last three years, her claims of not wanting the headache do have a ring of truth

Odds of her running 15 to 1

 

-Clement (Chappy) Campana: The former Council president secured the nomination four years ago but was talked out of running by the ever-astute Rensselaer County Democratic Party Chairman Tom Wade because of allegations Campana used his influence to secure an apartment in Troy Housing Authority for his aged father. That hurt him more than voter fraud – a years-long scandal where the charges brought against Campana were later dropped.

That said, he has been out of the scene for a the last four years, which can do nothing but help him, he was elected Council president so he can get votes city-wide, the Democrats have a decisive enrollment advantage, he bowed out gracefully four years ago so he could argue the party owes him one, and the Campana name is still solid.

Odds of him running 25 to 1

-Pete Ryan: As the deputy mayor, the number two man to Rosamilia, Ryan could be in a good position to take over for his current boss should said boss bow out for other reasons than those mentioned above.

But, as the number two man in what is widely seen as a three-year disaster puts him in the same boat as Rosamilia – except worse. Who is he going to blame when taxes are jacked by double figures next year or the year after? The administration he supposedly plays a major role in? Plus, while he is a party loyalist, I don’t think he has the political acumen to run a city wide campaign – the party can only do so much – and that puts him at a distinct disadvantage to someone like Wiltshire or even Kopka.

Odds of him running are 20 to 1.

Cindy Doran: The county legislator can get votes city wide and as a former teacher she has a solid base. But, she lacks any sort of executive experience in the private or public sector so should she run she would almost have to announce the members of the administration – and they would have to be well known and respected municipal administrators – and then run as a team rather than her trying to sell her record to the ever-astute voters of Troy.

Odds of her running are 15 to 1.
Ernest Everett: Thanks to an astute reader, I was told I left out this potential candidate who has already had a fundraiser. The little known potential candidate who recently moved back to the area is one step ahead of the rest of the field in that he has begun to raise money and he has a Facebook Page announcing his intentions.

I don't know much about him, but he was a Republican who switched to the Democratic Party. He is also a black man, who could be a thorn in the party proper's side should he have the guts to stay in the race and run a primary.

Since these odds are about who will potentially run, according to the abovementioned criteria, and after consultation with the stunned brokers in Vegas, we have no choice but to give Everett the odds of even money.  

The odds of rest of the field, which includes county Legislator Ed Manny, who expressed an interest four years ago, Legislator Peter Grimm, who has never expressed an interest, former Mayor Mark Pattison, who loved the job but was term limited out, former Deputy Mayor Jim Conroy, who has always wanted the job stand at 50 to 1.

Tomorrow I will post the Republican odds and candidates include former Councilwoman Carmella Mantello, Councilman Jim Gordon, former Councilman Mark McGrath, former Mayor Harry Tutunjian, former deputy mayor Dan Crawley and mad tweeter Kevin McCashion.          

Odds are in for Democratic mayoral candidates

ROSAMILIA

Petitions don’t hit the streets for more than another year, but I did heard back from my friends in Vegas and got the lowdown on some potential mayoral candidates. I’m surprised they are still working with me since I am just a lowly blogger rather than a high brow newspaper columnist, but after some arm twisting they did give me a peak. While the odds do come straight from Vegas, the commentary is my interpretation of what they mean.

I’ll start with the Democrats since the boys in Vegas are having a tough time finding any Republicans to even wager on. The odds reflect the chance they will run, not that they will win. Without further ado:

-Mayor Lou Rosamilia, 8-1: I think the incumbent will be the first one-term mayor since the city went to that form of government nearly 20 years ago. While I do think he likes the mayoral duties of cutting ribbons and reading Dr. Seuss to grade schoolers, I don’t think he likes the day-to-day, nuts and bolts duties and that’s evidenced by the way his administration has stumbled through the last two years. Sure, there are some good things going on in the Collar City but they are overshadowed by things like the King Street demolition, the Scolite debacle and well, not every mayor has the FBI asking questions about what’s going on in his administration.

WILTSHIRE

-Rodney Wiltshire, 3-1: I don’t think it’s any secret the Council president wants to run and his play on Scolite did nothing but reinforce that notion. Bucking the Democratic Party, though, is a risky game. He got the Independence Party line from the GOP and the Working Families Party coordinated his last Council campaign but neither one of those groups will help much in a Democratic Party primary. And it’s all but certain Chairman Tom Wade and company won’t support him. (As an aside, if he gets in a Dem. primary he will likely have the WFP and remain on the ballot regardless of the outcome.)

-Pete Ryan, 12-1: As Rosamilia’s deputy mayor, Ryan has been less than spectacular, I think the party knows that and realizes he would probably be a worse mayor than Rosamilia. The No. 2 guy should make sure the nuts and bolts gets done and well, for the past two years they really haven’t with any semblance of common sense of efficiency. Unlike Wiltshire, there is no way Ryan could wage an independent campaign for anything and I don’t see the party backing him.

KOPKA

-Lynn Kopka, 6-1: The councilwoman wanted to run three years ago but was bested by then Councilman Clement “Chappy” Campana. She has a strong base in Washington Park and is a party loyalist to the extreme – and I don’t mean that in necessarily a bad way. It’s a Democratic town and as such it doesn’t hurt to be a loyal Democrat. That said, she has done little establish herself as a true leader, be it in the party or legislatively, and while president she seemed more focused on corralling cats than political allegiances.

-Cindy Doran, 5-1: The county legislator could be the party’s sleeper candidate. She has strong ties to the school district, is a proven vote getter and has great name recognition thanks to her ex-husband, Dan Doran, who had his own political career going for a while. She is a relative newcomer and as such really is not defined by any stellar legislative initiatives or, on the flip side, any scandals or negative press either. She could come in as a blank slate and would be squarely in the party’s corner. That said, should she get elected, she would need a strong deputy to be an effective mayor.

ZALEWSKI

-Ken Zalewski, 15-1: The councilman is in his last term so he would not have to give up his seat to run and I think he can see himself as mayor someday but that means he would have to give up his six figure job in the state Senate which, in addition to paying more than the mayor, probably requires a whole lot less heavy lifting. Plus, he faces the same party loyalty problems as Wiltshire without the outside support.

-Bill Dunne, 16-1: The current commissioner of the Planning Department and former councilman surely has notions of becoming mayor but, unlike Doran, his slate is all chalked up. He certainly has made enemies along the way, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but his most recent stumbles – King Street, Scolite and the FBI nosing around – are just too much to overcome. The party knows it and probably so does Dunne, who has been accused of a bunch of things but never stupid.

CAMPANA

-Clement “Chappy” Campana, 12-1: The former mayoral candidate and Council president showed up at the last Council meeting and I’m sure he still has hopes of running for mayor. But, his slate is chalked up too and unlike Dunne he has also alienated a number in the Democratic Party. Chairman Tom Wade has coined Campana and his band of Democrats as the “Delusional Bunch” and if they think they can win a primary against Wade and company will only lend credence to the moniker.

-Carmella Mantello, 25-1: Vegas initially gave the Republican one set of odds but I talked them into giving them one for the Democrats too. They thought I was nuts but I just told them to look up #troycrazy. Anyway, she is probably unhappier with the GOP as they are with her and while I don’t see it happening, if the Democrats somehow see fit to give her a cross endorsement she wins hands down.

  Other possibilities

-Legislator Peter Grimm, 17-1

-Legislator Ed Manny, 16-1

-Former Councilman Kevin McGrath, 18-1 
 -Jack Cox Jr., 15-1 

-Legislator Gary Pavlic, 16-1