The odds are in for Troy mayoral candidates (UPDATED)

I took a couple weeks off as kind of a mental health vacation. Didn’t work. I get drawn back to #troycrazy like a moth to a flame; like Sen. Chuck Schumer to a TV camera; like Mayor Lou Rosamilia to a misstep; like Carmella Mantello to an election; like Fire Chief Tom Garrett to overtime; like Councilwoman Lynn Kopka to feral cats;  like Bill Dunne to … never mind; and like Kevin McCashion to Twitter.

Over the past few weeks I missed some stuff, but not much. It’s a slow time of year. And, since it is 2015 and there is a mayoral election year in the Collar City, I spent some time talking to the guys in Vegas on the potential candidates for the city’s top spot.

They do a pretty good job of setting the odds on paper, but they grudgingly accept my input on the web of inter-personal relationships, that have been known to cross political lines, and the tit-for-tat grudges that can span years and sometimes snowball for as long.

So, after inputting all the information, these are the odds the super computers in Vegas spit out on who will run for mayor. By run, we mean the candidate will publicly announce an intention, at least make an effort to raise money and, when the time comes, collect the necessary signatures.

First the Democrats (GOP coming tomorrow):

-Mayor Lou Rosamilia: There is no disputing the incumbent has had a tough three years. From new sidewalks in North Central built outside the scope of federal funding; to an arsonist still on the loose; to the ill-conceived appointment of a police commissioner; to the still-being-investigated demolition projects on King Street and the King Fuels site; to the embarrassing Council hearings on the same; to the finances – which might not be all his fault but he is the mayor so the buck (or lack thereof) stops at his desk.

There have been some good things under his watch like new businesses sprouting up and new development in downtown but the age-old complaint that the neighborhoods are being ignored have never been screamed louder or with as much truth.

Plus he makes a good pension from Hudson Valley, is getting up there in age so why would he want to put himself through another four years? Because he is malleable, and the Democrats may beg him until he agrees.

Odds of him running again are 15 to 1.

 

-Council President Rodney Wiltshire: There is no doubting he wants to run, and was setting himself up for a solid independent candidacy by spearheading the abovementioned investigation into the Rosamilia Administration and the demolition projects. Plus, he has a formidable following and some pretty smart political people (Sarah Couch and the Working Family Party types) around him.

But, he didn’t show up for the last two budget votes, the Council, under his leadership, failed to do anything about the financial crisis that will get nothing but worse and the much anticipated report on the demolition projects is still not done. Also, he broke from the party ranks and allied himself with the two GOP members – a move that did help him grab total control of the Council, a power he didn’t handle all that well. And hard line Democrats don’t like it much when one of their own plays footsie with the opposition.  

Odds of him running for mayor are 5 to 1

 

-Brian Howard: The former acting Superintendent of the Enlarged City School District of Troy got his name out there by running a suicide mission against Sen. Kathy Marchione and his name has been floated by Democratic insiders as a candidate untouched by the last three years of chaos.

He doesn’t need a job, obviously likes politics, is well-spoken and is probably looking for something to do. But, it all depends on if Rosamilia runs again or not.

Odds of him running 15 to 1.

 

-Councilwoman Lynn Kopka: She will be the first to say she doesn’t want to be mayor but she is as sly as one of the feral cats she chases around the city. If you remember, she was actively seeking the post four years ago when the nomination went to Clement Campana, who was later forced out of the race when the party decided he had too much baggage and went instead with Rosamilia. She also remained loyal to the party and the party apparatus does have some juice in the city.

But, she did lose the Council presidency she held for two years to Wiltshire which means her city-wide appeal might not be what it once was. Plus, after the last election and the chaos of the last three years, her claims of not wanting the headache do have a ring of truth

Odds of her running 15 to 1

 

-Clement (Chappy) Campana: The former Council president secured the nomination four years ago but was talked out of running by the ever-astute Rensselaer County Democratic Party Chairman Tom Wade because of allegations Campana used his influence to secure an apartment in Troy Housing Authority for his aged father. That hurt him more than voter fraud – a years-long scandal where the charges brought against Campana were later dropped.

That said, he has been out of the scene for a the last four years, which can do nothing but help him, he was elected Council president so he can get votes city-wide, the Democrats have a decisive enrollment advantage, he bowed out gracefully four years ago so he could argue the party owes him one, and the Campana name is still solid.

Odds of him running 25 to 1

-Pete Ryan: As the deputy mayor, the number two man to Rosamilia, Ryan could be in a good position to take over for his current boss should said boss bow out for other reasons than those mentioned above.

But, as the number two man in what is widely seen as a three-year disaster puts him in the same boat as Rosamilia – except worse. Who is he going to blame when taxes are jacked by double figures next year or the year after? The administration he supposedly plays a major role in? Plus, while he is a party loyalist, I don’t think he has the political acumen to run a city wide campaign – the party can only do so much – and that puts him at a distinct disadvantage to someone like Wiltshire or even Kopka.

Odds of him running are 20 to 1.

Cindy Doran: The county legislator can get votes city wide and as a former teacher she has a solid base. But, she lacks any sort of executive experience in the private or public sector so should she run she would almost have to announce the members of the administration – and they would have to be well known and respected municipal administrators – and then run as a team rather than her trying to sell her record to the ever-astute voters of Troy.

Odds of her running are 15 to 1.
Ernest Everett: Thanks to an astute reader, I was told I left out this potential candidate who has already had a fundraiser. The little known potential candidate who recently moved back to the area is one step ahead of the rest of the field in that he has begun to raise money and he has a Facebook Page announcing his intentions.

I don't know much about him, but he was a Republican who switched to the Democratic Party. He is also a black man, who could be a thorn in the party proper's side should he have the guts to stay in the race and run a primary.

Since these odds are about who will potentially run, according to the abovementioned criteria, and after consultation with the stunned brokers in Vegas, we have no choice but to give Everett the odds of even money.  

The odds of rest of the field, which includes county Legislator Ed Manny, who expressed an interest four years ago, Legislator Peter Grimm, who has never expressed an interest, former Mayor Mark Pattison, who loved the job but was term limited out, former Deputy Mayor Jim Conroy, who has always wanted the job stand at 50 to 1.

Tomorrow I will post the Republican odds and candidates include former Councilwoman Carmella Mantello, Councilman Jim Gordon, former Councilman Mark McGrath, former Mayor Harry Tutunjian, former deputy mayor Dan Crawley and mad tweeter Kevin McCashion.