Petitions don’t hit the streets for more than another year, but I did heard back from my friends in Vegas and got the lowdown on some potential mayoral candidates. I’m surprised they are still working with me since I am just a lowly blogger rather than a high brow newspaper columnist, but after some arm twisting they did give me a peak. While the odds do come straight from Vegas, the commentary is my interpretation of what they mean.
I’ll start with the Democrats since the boys in Vegas are having a tough time finding any Republicans to even wager on. The odds reflect the chance they will run, not that they will win. Without further ado:
-Mayor Lou Rosamilia, 8-1: I think the incumbent will be the first one-term mayor since the city went to that form of government nearly 20 years ago. While I do think he likes the mayoral duties of cutting ribbons and reading Dr. Seuss to grade schoolers, I don’t think he likes the day-to-day, nuts and bolts duties and that’s evidenced by the way his administration has stumbled through the last two years. Sure, there are some good things going on in the Collar City but they are overshadowed by things like the King Street demolition, the Scolite debacle and well, not every mayor has the FBI asking questions about what’s going on in his administration.
-Rodney Wiltshire, 3-1: I don’t think it’s any secret the Council president wants to run and his play on Scolite did nothing but reinforce that notion. Bucking the Democratic Party, though, is a risky game. He got the Independence Party line from the GOP and the Working Families Party coordinated his last Council campaign but neither one of those groups will help much in a Democratic Party primary. And it’s all but certain Chairman Tom Wade and company won’t support him. (As an aside, if he gets in a Dem. primary he will likely have the WFP and remain on the ballot regardless of the outcome.)
-Pete Ryan, 12-1: As Rosamilia’s deputy mayor, Ryan has been less than spectacular, I think the party knows that and realizes he would probably be a worse mayor than Rosamilia. The No. 2 guy should make sure the nuts and bolts gets done and well, for the past two years they really haven’t with any semblance of common sense of efficiency. Unlike Wiltshire, there is no way Ryan could wage an independent campaign for anything and I don’t see the party backing him.
-Lynn Kopka, 6-1: The councilwoman wanted to run three years ago but was bested by then Councilman Clement “Chappy” Campana. She has a strong base in Washington Park and is a party loyalist to the extreme – and I don’t mean that in necessarily a bad way. It’s a Democratic town and as such it doesn’t hurt to be a loyal Democrat. That said, she has done little establish herself as a true leader, be it in the party or legislatively, and while president she seemed more focused on corralling cats than political allegiances.
-Cindy Doran, 5-1: The county legislator could be the party’s sleeper candidate. She has strong ties to the school district, is a proven vote getter and has great name recognition thanks to her ex-husband, Dan Doran, who had his own political career going for a while. She is a relative newcomer and as such really is not defined by any stellar legislative initiatives or, on the flip side, any scandals or negative press either. She could come in as a blank slate and would be squarely in the party’s corner. That said, should she get elected, she would need a strong deputy to be an effective mayor.
-Ken Zalewski, 15-1: The councilman is in his last term so he would not have to give up his seat to run and I think he can see himself as mayor someday but that means he would have to give up his six figure job in the state Senate which, in addition to paying more than the mayor, probably requires a whole lot less heavy lifting. Plus, he faces the same party loyalty problems as Wiltshire without the outside support.
-Bill Dunne, 16-1: The current commissioner of the Planning Department and former councilman surely has notions of becoming mayor but, unlike Doran, his slate is all chalked up. He certainly has made enemies along the way, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but his most recent stumbles – King Street, Scolite and the FBI nosing around – are just too much to overcome. The party knows it and probably so does Dunne, who has been accused of a bunch of things but never stupid.
-Clement “Chappy” Campana, 12-1: The former mayoral candidate and Council president showed up at the last Council meeting and I’m sure he still has hopes of running for mayor. But, his slate is chalked up too and unlike Dunne he has also alienated a number in the Democratic Party. Chairman Tom Wade has coined Campana and his band of Democrats as the “Delusional Bunch” and if they think they can win a primary against Wade and company will only lend credence to the moniker.
-Carmella Mantello, 25-1: Vegas initially gave the Republican one set of odds but I talked them into giving them one for the Democrats too. They thought I was nuts but I just told them to look up #troycrazy. Anyway, she is probably unhappier with the GOP as they are with her and while I don’t see it happening, if the Democrats somehow see fit to give her a cross endorsement she wins hands down.
-Legislator Peter Grimm, 17-1
-Legislator Ed Manny, 16-1
-Former Councilman Kevin McGrath, 18-1
-Jack Cox Jr., 15-1
-Jack Cox Jr., 15-1
-Legislator Gary Pavlic, 16-1
I'm glad you realized that you're a nobody Franco.ReplyDelete
Then why do you read itDelete
Anyone but mayor Lou. Look at this city. Filthy streets high taxes. Dunne having a controlling role. FBI. Delos. Unhappy city workers. Firemen and employees no contracts. Favors. List goes on. Worst mayor in historyReplyDelete
Franco...I just read your friends odds on next years mayors race. All I can say is I hope he or she keeps their day job. Ryan,Dunne, Campana,Rosie have no shot in hell.The dems would be smart to find someone new. This administration has given the citizens of Troy a wakeup call that things have to change. The house cleans up if anyone bets on these guys. Signed Vinnie VegasReplyDelete
Are you one of those disgruntled Reps that knows your party don't stand a chance again in Troy? You're probably the same person that wishes Carmela could get on the Dem line because you know that would be the only way you could possibly get Mark McGrath elected on your own line as Mayor.Delete
Kevin McGrath could win any race in Troy easily. He could even beat Cuomo for governor, and give Obama a run for his money. I heard they asked him to be ambassador to Ukraine. But unfortunately his duties at National Grid prevent him from enjoying this bright political future.ReplyDelete
He could beat Gordon again for sure. He still rents space in your heads. He must still be a threat.Delete
If he could have beat him why didn't he run? Work commitments? Sure has time to hang at the meetings and play bouncer at bars. Talk is cheap.Delete
Jim Gordon will use his two year term to show all of Troy what a preening, do-nothing political hack he really is. If he actually went out on the streets in Lansingburgh as part of his "neighborhood watch", he'd wet his pants.Delete
He's a real legal eagle so to speak. Legend in his own mind. I'm sure he was looking in a mirror as he typed this.Delete
Jimbo and Vito have Kevin McGrath envy. Its so sad.Delete
Would bill dunne deputy mayor be. Chapstick? Does he have addiction to Chapstick because his friendship with chappy ended? Is Chapstick the replacement to chappy? All we know is in the deputy mayors office he will put a Chapstick. He depends on it and that's what deputy mayors are for. But who will sit in Zuuls broom closet next door?ReplyDelete
Carmella is the new ZuulDelete
Jay Vrandenburg will get one vote hisReplyDelete
Just got home from Church I was praying that there are no Floods this year and that McCashon will walk on water and keep walking till he reaches the Atlantic Ocean and the sharks get him :-)ReplyDelete
Vandenburgh. Zba czar for mayor. Clean everything up and investigate this administration just like he did at tha. He can do it. And put his large brother up for dpw commish and his other brother spokesman.ReplyDelete
1..How did I get in this ?Delete
2 I have 4 brothers.
You seem To know it allDelete
We need someone to save usDelete
Bobby, the Czar knows more than he's saying. Again Czar, who signed the vacation exchange checks for convicted THA ex-chairman Meissner? You or Jimino?Delete
I did not become chairman until 2012...the boys were canned in 2010.Delete
Anytime you jerkoffs want info from housing all you have to do is call and ask. Don't know what else you boys need to know but all you to do is ask.. The 2 state depts. involved could not stop patting each other on the back for their convictions.Delete
Bobby and anonymous want a lot of answers 4 years later...commish dinapoli has a43 page report that 2 einsteins like you should be able to ge.stop acting like vince is my buddy u 2 know nothingDelete
Czar, you patted yourself on the back for throwing Meissner under the bus but conveniently left out Vince. The same Vince who's wife is the power of the Republican party to which you owe your job. Truth is you carry Jimino's water, both buckets.Delete
One year as chair. What a great tenure.Delete
Someone should investigate the czar and why he works where he chaired? Civil service laws to abide by? City council approvals? None that I seenDelete
Vince is nothing to me.He hired the guy and then voted not to fire him he left when his boys did, I was chair 2 years....anytime you jerkoffs can write down what you do but no one knows you, What job is it that I owe the jiminos..this isn't fredo cox again is it ??Delete
You call catching a guy stealing from the Fed throwing him under the bus? Great guys you stick up for and I have nothing to do with the jiminos.Delete
If you a worried about the czar then why don't you tell the FBI agents that are all around, if your scared the have Billy tell them for you cause they will be speaking to Bill.Delete
Three job Cindy Doran for Mayor, that's insane.ReplyDelete
I concur with my friend, Deb Locktite's view on all these lackluster "anonymous" comments. Maybe I should have voted for her after all. Time to man up guys! Or, woman up as the case may be. From now on, I'll sign mine. Hope no one knocks my head off for my candor. Say...anyone want to spot me $150 so I can attend King Rod's burrito gala? Maybe he'll let me shake his hand? Or, get his autograph?ReplyDelete
The problem with voting for Deb Lockrow is you didn't know what you're getting. Put a picture of Bob Mirch and Deb Lockrow side by side and tell me they were not twins separated at birth. If I was a little more delusional I would think that because Mirch was run out of town on a rail he has now taken the identity of Ms. Lockrow to quench his political lust. He is evil as everyone knows.Delete
Mirch, Lockrow, and lust all in the same paragraph. I think I just threw up a little in my mouth.Delete
I see in the Times Union business section that the Club 41 (former Pips) on 112th street is $35,000.00 in hole for sales tax. That will soon be another failed business in north troy only been there for 2 years.ReplyDelete
Coming out of the cafe by monument square and some ahole comes running down 2nd. With no pants on screaming "I'm hot I'm hot". I thinking he might have been jerking off too but didn't really want to look. What the hell kind of loons do we have living in Troy? I don't care if you think you're hot, put some pants onReplyDelete
Sounds like Mirch is backDelete
Did it look like Bob or Deb?Delete
It's dunnes Sunday runDelete
Some ones got to hold the bag for these pigs in the burgh.ReplyDelete
Doran met with Mantello telling Mantello that Wade wants her to run for mayor and that Wade wants anybody but Wiltshire. Tells you all you need to know about Wade and is confidence in Rosimelia,ReplyDelete
Some of you are either getting some really bad information or smoking funny cigarettes.Delete
oh, that happened....I saw it with my own two eyes. Not sure what was said entirely, only overheard talk of mayoral aspirations.Delete
Oh, you must have been one of the four people attending the Republican city fundraiser! You saw two people talking and that's it. Get over yourself and stop making shit up.Delete
What are the odds on the Sheriffs race?ReplyDelete
Mahar / Russo 2-1Delete
Gordon / Piche / Rogers 99-1
what are the odds of the Sheriff actually completing his internal investigation of the HIPAA violations?Delete
what are odds that Rogers stops getting paid and accumulating time while on suspension for stealing union funds. What happened to that investigation??Delete
well if Jack is running that investigation then it could be a while. He works kind of slow. But it has been going on almost as long as the HIPAA investigation. New game, let's see which one finishes first! I have my money on Rogers - HIPAA could find Jackie in a jail cell.Delete
Gordon 80-1, happy now?ReplyDelete
I heard a rumor that Paul Donnelly, the ad guy, is considering moving back to Troy from Brunswick to put his hat in. I seriously doubt it though.ReplyDelete
I doubt he is that stupidDelete
Mahar gets beat in a primary. They are lining someone up as we speakReplyDelete
After reading all of this drivel, here is some common sense:ReplyDelete
Rosamilia is an incumbent who beat a Republican with 3 party endorsements by 10 points, advantage Rosamilia against all comers;
Zalewski is too frantic and insecure to ever run for an office he isn't certain of winning--he'll probably try to cut a deal with Republicans for an appointment;
Campana never cleared the air on his allegedly criminal activity at the Housing Authority which took him out of the mayor's race last time;
Wiltshire wants to be the candidate of ALL political parties because, in his mind, who would not want him ? Reality is he would stab anyone in the back to further his career and people involved are seeing his true self serving persona. Speaking of careers, what happened to his little solar business that looks like it is closed ? Moral of the Wiltshire story: you can't fool all of the people all of the time !
That's a decent analysis. Lou can easily beat Rodney in a primary, even with the recent administration stumbles.Delete
Rodney can't get out of the way of his own ego, and that never ends well. Lone wolves don't survive long in politics.
He's not a lone wolf. That is where all of you are truly misguided.Delete
Sure he is. He's surrounded by misfits with no social standing or political influence, many of whom are criminals. And he won't get a major party line.Delete
You know who else the loony bunch shouted and screamed about and insisted wasn't a lone wolf? Rabbit Riley. I think we all know how that one turned out. Be guided accordingly.
Rabbit Riley----another one of Kevin McGrath's political failures. Kevin joined forces with political neophytes, losers, and misfits to oust a party chairman because he would never give kevin another nomination. Chairman Wade is still there---Kevin is OUT.Delete
Kevin McGrath will never win an election in Troy again. The fact that he's a big Rodney supporter tells you all you need to know about Rodney's future chances for success.Delete