Rosamilia is still out; Republican odds are in

MANTELLO

The fact Mayor Lou Rosamilia will not run for a second term did little to change the mix of potential Republican candidates or the odds of them getting into the race, according to Vegas bookmakers.

-Carmella Mantello: The former councilwoman and twice mayoral candidate has all but announced her intention to run for a third time. She is all over social media weighing in on about every issue facing the city, she routinely sends out FOIL requests and even put out an unsolicited statement on Rosamilia’s decision to not run again. After serving six years on the Council representing District 3 she ran unsuccessfully against Mayor Mark Pattison and then, a dozen years later, ran unsuccessfully against Rosamilia.  She really has nothing to lose and despite the Republican Party proper ready to endorse Councilman Jim Gordon, R-District 1, for the spot she is gearing up for a primary if it comes down to it. The Republicans have offered Mantello a job – such as head of the Planning Department – if she withdraws and if Gordon wins but nobody expects her to believe them or to take the deal even if she did. ODDS of her running stand at 2 to 1.

GORDON

-Jim Gordon: It’s a little harder to tell if Gordon is running since he is already an elected official and the electorate – and his party since he is in the minority - expects him to make some noise. But, while he clearly wants to run he would have to give up the district seat he worked so hard to win – and the $15,000 paycheck that comes with it. The Rensselaer County STOPDWI coordinator would, however, enjoy the Conservative and Independence party lines should he make it past what would be a near certain primary against Mantello. On the flip side of that, she would not have them and they are crucial to a Republican winning a citywide election since Democrats outnumber the GOP by about 5 to 3. He too has built up his name recognition beyond his Lansingburgh district. ODDS of him running stand at 2 to 1.

MCGRATH

 -Mark McGrath: The “Draft McGrath” movement is alive and well albeit too small to swing the Republicans into giving the enrolled Conservative Party member permission to run on its line. He could, though, play hardball with City Chairman Mark Wojcik and run a Conservative Party primary his can and then try to run in the general on just the minor party line. But, McGrath won’t run a suicide mission as a vendetta. Instead, he said, he is 99 percent sure he will run again in District 2, where he served eight years before being term limited out of office two years ago. ODDS of him running for mayor stand at 15 to 1.

TUTUNJIAN

-Harry Tutunjian: There is no question the former eight-year mayor loved the job and would like nothing more than to be in City Hall again. He did a decent job too before being term limited out. He had his critics, without a doubt, but compared to the Rosamiia debacle, he was FDR, JFK and Ronald Regan all rolled into one. But, he lost twice for Legislature so if the GOP endorses him this year it’s because everyone else bailed out – even Mantello. Odds of him running stand at 20 to 1.