Monday, March 23, 2015

Rosamilia is out; updated odds are in


ROSAMILIA
With Mayor Lou Rosamilia’s decision to not seek re-election I guess now would be a good time to update the odds for who will run for the city's top office later this year. Vegas is a bit overwhelmed thanks to some college basketball tournament, but bookmakers were able to put together preliminary odds on potential Democratic candidates running for mayor and promised to have some odds on the Republican candidates tomorrow.
First, though, I’ve got to say the mayor’s decision came as no surprise. He was in way too far over his head to make good decisions on his own and did not have the right people giving him advice. They were either over their heads themselves (Pete Ryan, Ian Silverman and Mike Morris) or they had their own agendas (Bill Dunne and about every other department head and employee in the city.) Of the three mayors since the city changed its governing structure, Rosamilia may have been the nicest mayor but he was also the worst. 
WILTSHIRE
More on Rosamilia’s rocky one-term later. Tonight, we look to the future. The odds are known to change with the smallest of ripples or whispers or posts on Facebook but as of March 23 sometime after 9 p.m. this is where they stand on who will run, not on who will win. Those will come later too.
For the Dems:
-Rodney Wiltshire: The Times Union is reporting that the council president could announce as soon as March 4. Earlier, he said he would not primary Rosamilia but I think he gave up on that pledge long ago and had been planning to run for a while. He is a solid candidate with the Council presidency under his belt, has better than average name recognition and a good presence in front of the cameras. He will not – or very likely not – have the support of the Democratic Party proper and that means he will probably have to run a primary. He will also likely not enjoy the Independence Party backing he got from the GOP that propelled him to the presidency. ODDS of him running stand at even money.
-Ernest Everett: The little known candidate already has a Facebook page touting his candidacy and has raised some money for a run. He maintains he spent some of that money at places like Hooters and Kokopellis and other bars and restaurants to hold campaign pow wows with key advisers but it will still come back to haunt him - should he opt to continue his run. Whether or not he gets party support is up in the air but since it was the Democrats who initially leaked the campaign summits at Hooters I’m guessing not. ODDS of him staying the race stand at 5 to 1.
MANNY
Ed Manny: The county legislator wanted to run four years ago but the nod went first to Clement “Chappy” Campana and then to Rosamilia. The retired firefighter is, however, a party loyalist but the only way the Democrats pick him is if everyone else turns them down and they find themselves in a jam. Kinda like how Rosamilia got the endorsement. And Rosamilia, for better or worse, won. ODDS of him running are 7 to 1.
Cindy Doran: Another county legislator who is loyal to the party has shown an affinity for politics during her first term in office. The teacher in the Troy school district got some press – that boosted her name recognition – by calling for the chairman of the Legislature, Martin Reid, to resign and for her criticism of District Attorney Joel Abelove. ODDS of her running are 12 to 1.  
DORAN
Clement “Chappy” Campana: He was the party’s pick four years ago but his involvement in voter fraud, and more importantly his use of political influence to get his father into one of the nicer Troy Housing Authority apartments, dogged his campaign to the point that Rensselaer County Chairman Tom Wade chased him off the ballot. Wise move on Wade’s part. But, Campana does have a following, solid name recognition and, if you think about it, Wade owes him one. ODDS of him running are 12 to 1.
Lynn Kopka: The city councilwoman’s name was in the mix three-plus years ago, didn’t get the endorsement and ran for the legislative seat instead. She was elected president for two years and then lost that seat to Wiltshire and then nearly lost her Council seat altogether. She is however, a party proper person, which means she is in Wade’s corner and has been the front man (woman) against those Democrats who are not (i.e. Wiltshire.) ODDS of her running are 17 to 1.   
KOPKA
-Bill Dunne: The former eight-year councilman and current director of the city’s Planning Department certainly has name recognition – whether it’s for good or bad reasons is a toss-up. He is loyal to the Democratic Party, though, and he is “confident” enough to think he could win. ODDS of him running are 17 to 1.
-Pete Ryan: The current deputy mayor was elected to the Council and then the Legislature. If he should toss his hat in the ring, however, he would have a tough time – if not impossible time – distancing himself from Rosamilia’s many missteps. ODDS of him running are 20 to 1
-Ken Zalewski: During an appearance on @Talk1300, the four-term councilman said he wouldn’t mind being mayor someday but fell well short of saying he would run this year. He would have to take a pay cut, for starters, and he is a staunch supporter of Wiltshire. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.
-Jim Conroy: The former deputy mayor under then Mayor Mark Pattison would probably like to run but he won’t run without party support and that doesn’t seem likely at this point in time. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.
RYAN
Mayor Mark Pattison: After serving eight years in office he’s been out of the public eye for 12 years but unlike Rosamilia he did like the job and would be a formidable candidate should he opt to run. He does, however, have a cushy job at the State Comptroller’s Office so whether he wants to give that up and jump back into the lion’s den is unlikely. ODDS of him running are 25 to 1.
Tomorrow I will get the odds for potential Republican candidates and they include Councilman Jim Gordon, former Councilwoman and mayoral candidate Carmella Mantello, former Mayor Harry Tutunjian and former Councilman Mark McGrath.
If I forgot anyone from either party please let me know in the comments or drop me a line at 878-1000 or jfranco961@gmail.com

 

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37 comments:

  1. Did I hear Lou just complain that "it got personal"? Didn't he appoint Bill Dunne the nastiest political hatchet-man in Troy history? Worst mayor this city ever had.

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    1. Lou is a good person dragged into the gutter with Troy's lowest bottom feeders. Bad advice in a business he should have never been in. Wade put that idiot in a position in planning that is the the whole problem. Who ever gets in, if the authorities don't get rid of that idiot in planning the next mayor better! Thats Rodney or Carmella. Republican defending Lou's name here!

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    2. But Lou has made many decisions all on his own that he has only himself to blame for

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  2. It really is a shame for whatever reason the citizens of Troy do not give Mantello an opportunity to implement the agenda she has spoken about all of these years. A democrat will get in again just because of his/her political affiliation and it will be another disaster.

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  3. You heard wrong! He said his decision not to run was personal. No one could be worse that Harry...tore down City Hall with no long term plan in place. Left Rosamilia with a financial mess.

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    1. A true finance professional would be able to pick up on the inappropriate transferring of funds. A true finance professional would have dual control on everything PLUS a City Auditor. A true finance professional would have fired at least five people for the inadequacy in performing their job duties correctly.

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  4. God help us if Wiltshire wins. Anybody but Rodney.

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    1. He won't win. He doesn't realize it yet, but he will.

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  5. When the FBI is issuing subpoenas for the Nice Guy Lou administration, it's bound to feel personal.

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  6. Worst mayor/city manager in the history of Troy. Returning from Waterford we drove the burgh. What the hell happened? Soon enough the east side will become the burgh no matter who becomes mayor D/R/I we're cutting our loses

    Troy is far from perfect all administrations had +&- but Lou's built the coffin is Rodney bringing nails?







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    1. The burgh is a shithole thanks to do nothing councilman Jim Gordon and his do-less-than nothing sidekick Chief Tedesco. Jim's too busy combing his hair for TV to get his hands dirty in the Burgh.

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    2. So enlighten us as to the accomplishments of the previous councilman? Anyone --Bueller -Bueller --Bueller

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    3. Stoneledge. Tax base. High income earners, not subsidized. We receive more than we gave. Jim & Harry were against it, they went on TV to say so (google baby) Now, what about Wojcik? What did he do? Nada. Section 8 exploded in Burgh under Mark and Harry. And Gordon, well Jim just helped 3 taxed properties get swapped out for tax free Troy Housing Authority housing. He helped his buddy Crawley, not taxpayers. And how much money does Gordon need to make off of taxpayers before it is enough? Stop DWI coordinator. What exactly does he do?

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    4. We got voter-fraud; plea agreements to avoid felony charges; useless police commissioner and the list goes on. Superhero's cape is dirty, dirty, dirty.

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    5. Any odds on the chances the THA housing ends up housing vets in Burgh? Another non profit brought into an area where the tax base is already drained. Good job.

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    6. Sad to read the comments of some low achieving family members trying to keep the wagon attached to the names of their successful brothers. You would think with the shame you caused and the felonies you committed in office you would fad away quietly and let Pat hold his head high.

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  7. A number of people, including many democrats, told Lou not to have Dunne as part of the administration. Wade pushed him to Deputy Mayor but settled on Planning. All roads point to Dunne. Wait for the indictments!

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    1. Wonder if a sweater-vest goes well with a jumpsuit?

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    2. We won't need anything on in cell block b

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  8. You are who you keep. Remember Rodney spent countless Saturday nights at Kokopellis along side Gary Pavlic. The same guy who said its ok to shoot someone as long as no one calls the police.

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    1. Surprised Rodney is making his announcement in front of Kokopelli's. After all, it is the place he so often "partied".

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  9. Lou should quit today what a disgrace. All his minions including Garrett should kiss the pavement. When the chief is replaced hope someone like McMahon gets a chance.

    My gut demo scandals. Anyone think someone with outside authority sniffing around suggest he walk? Don't like to get personal but his wife looked very distressed at the announcement certainly something is going on beyond Troy comedy politics.

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  10. Gary Gordon, worst Sheriff we never had! SCOTT TESSMAN RYAN 2015!

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  11. No, I think that's Bob Mirch.

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  12. Lou would not live thru 4 more years.Billy Done is the worst thing that happened to Lou, Lou gets the last laugh when Done goes to jail.

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  13. At least Scott Ryan has a plan. He will
    be unveiling his new anti crime initiative OPERATION MINDCRIME later this month.

    Gary Gordon couldn't stop crime with his mind.

    Shits about to get real.

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  14. You all need to stop bitching and get your heads out of your asses. You wanted a tough mayor, and so you elected Tutunjian, an insecure political bully with a Napoleon complex. Didn't work out so well, did it? Then you elected a nice guy non-politician, who didn't use the office to settle scores or extend party influence, and you're still not happy. Bitch, complain, whine. Sounds like you deserve what you get in Troy.

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    1. Can anyone say Voter Fraud in Tutunjian's case

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  15. Hopefully it's not a republican, we saw how they do things in the county. Especially at the jail. What kind of sheriff marries an ex-inmate?

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    1. Oh but she's so pleasant at dmv lol

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  16. Hmmm. Less than 72 hours after subpoenas are delivered throughout city floor Lou makes a personal decision to quit and focus on his faith and family. Sounds good to me.
    The next mayor better be ready to deal with the financial mess. Lou nearly doubled the city's debt and spend down the reserves to nothing.

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  17. Will Carmella have the law firm of Cooper, Cox, & McGrath Esquire working for her campaign?

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  18. Loved the pictures on the Times Union of Rodney, his wife,Rabbit,Laporto, Monica and "Chappy". Guess that tells us who has a job if Rodney elected mayor

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  19. Chappy will make a fine Deputy mayor, what a joke a deal has been cut.

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  20. Monica must be looking for Job Security with Rodney Wiltshire

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    1. Good old melty chest

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  21. Rodney has no chance. George Boone for mayor.

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