Friday, January 2, 2015

The odds are in for Troy mayoral candidates (UPDATED)


I took a couple weeks off as kind of a mental health vacation. Didn’t work. I get drawn back to #troycrazy like a moth to a flame; like Sen. Chuck Schumer to a TV camera; like Mayor Lou Rosamilia to a misstep; like Carmella Mantello to an election; like Fire Chief Tom Garrett to overtime; like Councilwoman Lynn Kopka to feral cats;  like Bill Dunne to … never mind; and like Kevin McCashion to Twitter.
Over the past few weeks I missed some stuff, but not much. It’s a slow time of year. And, since it is 2015 and there is a mayoral election year in the Collar City, I spent some time talking to the guys in Vegas on the potential candidates for the city’s top spot.
They do a pretty good job of setting the odds on paper, but they grudgingly accept my input on the web of inter-personal relationships, that have been known to cross political lines, and the tit-for-tat grudges that can span years and sometimes snowball for as long.
So, after inputting all the information, these are the odds the super computers in Vegas spit out on who will run for mayor. By run, we mean the candidate will publicly announce an intention, at least make an effort to raise money and, when the time comes, collect the necessary signatures.
First the Democrats (GOP coming tomorrow):

-Mayor Lou Rosamilia: There is no disputing the incumbent has had a tough three years. From new sidewalks in North Central built outside the scope of federal funding; to an arsonist still on the loose; to the ill-conceived appointment of a police commissioner; to the still-being-investigated demolition projects on King Street and the King Fuels site; to the embarrassing Council hearings on the same; to the finances – which might not be all his fault but he is the mayor so the buck (or lack thereof) stops at his desk.
There have been some good things under his watch like new businesses sprouting up and new development in downtown but the age-old complaint that the neighborhoods are being ignored have never been screamed louder or with as much truth.
Plus he makes a good pension from Hudson Valley, is getting up there in age so why would he want to put himself through another four years? Because he is malleable, and the Democrats may beg him until he agrees.
Odds of him running again are 15 to 1.
 
-Council President Rodney Wiltshire: There is no doubting he wants to run, and was setting himself up for a solid independent candidacy by spearheading the abovementioned investigation into the Rosamilia Administration and the demolition projects. Plus, he has a formidable following and some pretty smart political people (Sarah Couch and the Working Family Party types) around him.
But, he didn’t show up for the last two budget votes, the Council, under his leadership, failed to do anything about the financial crisis that will get nothing but worse and the much anticipated report on the demolition projects is still not done. Also, he broke from the party ranks and allied himself with the two GOP members – a move that did help him grab total control of the Council, a power he didn’t handle all that well. And hard line Democrats don’t like it much when one of their own plays footsie with the opposition.  
Odds of him running for mayor are 5 to 1
 
-Brian Howard: The former acting Superintendent of the Enlarged City School District of Troy got his name out there by running a suicide mission against Sen. Kathy Marchione and his name has been floated by Democratic insiders as a candidate untouched by the last three years of chaos.
He doesn’t need a job, obviously likes politics, is well-spoken and is probably looking for something to do. But, it all depends on if Rosamilia runs again or not.
Odds of him running 15 to 1.
 
-Councilwoman Lynn Kopka: She will be the first to say she doesn’t want to be mayor but she is as sly as one of the feral cats she chases around the city. If you remember, she was actively seeking the post four years ago when the nomination went to Clement Campana, who was later forced out of the race when the party decided he had too much baggage and went instead with Rosamilia. She also remained loyal to the party and the party apparatus does have some juice in the city.
But, she did lose the Council presidency she held for two years to Wiltshire which means her city-wide appeal might not be what it once was. Plus, after the last election and the chaos of the last three years, her claims of not wanting the headache do have a ring of truth
Odds of her running 15 to 1
 
-Clement (Chappy) Campana: The former Council president secured the nomination four years ago but was talked out of running by the ever-astute Rensselaer County Democratic Party Chairman Tom Wade because of allegations Campana used his influence to secure an apartment in Troy Housing Authority for his aged father. That hurt him more than voter fraud – a years-long scandal where the charges brought against Campana were later dropped.
That said, he has been out of the scene for a the last four years, which can do nothing but help him, he was elected Council president so he can get votes city-wide, the Democrats have a decisive enrollment advantage, he bowed out gracefully four years ago so he could argue the party owes him one, and the Campana name is still solid.
Odds of him running 25 to 1

-Pete Ryan: As the deputy mayor, the number two man to Rosamilia, Ryan could be in a good position to take over for his current boss should said boss bow out for other reasons than those mentioned above.
But, as the number two man in what is widely seen as a three-year disaster puts him in the same boat as Rosamilia – except worse. Who is he going to blame when taxes are jacked by double figures next year or the year after? The administration he supposedly plays a major role in? Plus, while he is a party loyalist, I don’t think he has the political acumen to run a city wide campaign – the party can only do so much – and that puts him at a distinct disadvantage to someone like Wiltshire or even Kopka.
Odds of him running are 20 to 1.

Cindy Doran: The county legislator can get votes city wide and as a former teacher she has a solid base. But, she lacks any sort of executive experience in the private or public sector so should she run she would almost have to announce the members of the administration – and they would have to be well known and respected municipal administrators – and then run as a team rather than her trying to sell her record to the ever-astute voters of Troy.
Odds of her running are 15 to 1.
Ernest Everett: Thanks to an astute reader, I was told I left out this potential candidate who has already had a fundraiser. The little known potential candidate who recently moved back to the area is one step ahead of the rest of the field in that he has begun to raise money and he has a Facebook Page announcing his intentions.

I don't know much about him, but he was a Republican who switched to the Democratic Party. He is also a black man, who could be a thorn in the party proper's side should he have the guts to stay in the race and run a primary.

Since these odds are about who will potentially run, according to the abovementioned criteria, and after consultation with the stunned brokers in Vegas, we have no choice but to give Everett the odds of even money.  

The odds of rest of the field, which includes county Legislator Ed Manny, who expressed an interest four years ago, Legislator Peter Grimm, who has never expressed an interest, former Mayor Mark Pattison, who loved the job but was term limited out, former Deputy Mayor Jim Conroy, who has always wanted the job stand at 50 to 1.

Tomorrow I will post the Republican odds and candidates include former Councilwoman Carmella Mantello, Councilman Jim Gordon, former Councilman Mark McGrath, former Mayor Harry Tutunjian, former deputy mayor Dan Crawley and mad tweeter Kevin McCashion.          

38 comments:

  1. I think you meant "... like Mayor Lou Rosamilia to ribbon cuttings..." lol.

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  2. We missed you Jim. Thank you for all you do.

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    1. Sucking up to bloggers won't get you a spot on city council. You have lost two primaries and two elections. give it up.

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    2. Very funny brave anonymous fool.And I only lost one primary.And not being part of this mess of a city council is no loss. Love this city !

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    3. B dunne at his best

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  3. Jim, Glad your back. Don't forget the Sheriff's race

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  4. Mark if you are reading this.............DO IT.

    Time to get rid of the fluff and bring in the pit bull. Troy needs a real leader who can say it like it is and get the damn job done.

    DRAFT MCGRATH 2015!!!!

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    1. Hillary and Mark 2015. That shit is funny.

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    2. Pit Bull With AIDS Yes

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  5. I've been following Ernie......trying to figure out his stance. Tried to figure out if he owns property in the city, tried to figure out a lot. Not sure what his game plan is but when a candidate that is running for Mayor blocks you from posting legitimate questions and then deletes those questions so the public cannot read them..... it kinda makes one wonder what kind of Mayor he would be if he doesn't and can't answer a taxpayer/ voter question. If its too hot in the kitchen already, its best to get out.

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    1. Not to mention he claims to have interned for U.S. Congress. For who or what office? 20 years of congressional intern records do not list his name anywhere.

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    2. Also, he claims to have graduated from Syracuse University. He actually graduated from Utica College of Syracuse University. He should be more clear about that.

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  6. Who bangs the loudest drum? While they may not be the ones running, they could be a driving force behind a campaign's sucess. Find out who they "like".

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    1. Or find out who bangs who.

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    2. 10:29 it is no secret who bangs who LOL!

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    3. Heard someone is expecting...

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    4. 12:47 Wonder Woman?

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  7. Ed Manny? HELL NO. Conroy...ditto...NO! Cat woman, that's a negative. Mark Pattison is a good choice, Tutunjian good choice, Chappy...he has already had hi chance. I'd actually like to see Neil Kelleher run.

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  8. What no odds on the Lansingburgh Superhero and his running mate Wonder Woman?? Oh wait, she doesn't live here. Dang! Superhero your cape is coming undone!!!

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    1. Heard shes moving to the Burgh. Uh oh

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  9. Interesting lists of postings. Let's start with the Mayor. Although having taught accounting for years, it's the real world debits and credits that seem to cause problems. How can anyone in an administration say they did not know the real financial state of affairs? What has he been doing for 3 years? Where is the real budget cutting and why was bonding proposed when we were awash in a sea of red ink? The King Street project got swept under the rug. The city engineer is out of town, barricades are delivered early in the morning and behold an emergency dictates demolition. Who got paid what and how much is the real question? The current President of the Council goes out of town for vacation when the budget vote takes place. This is two years in a row. Perhaps he suffers from avoiding tough decisions and likes to blame others. He also had $14,000 in the budget for a new table for the city council which is a wasteful expenditure of resources. Brian Howard, another professor type who as a school Superintendent raised school taxes to make budget ends meet. This we do not need. Clem is a nice guy, but has some issues like his father's admission into public housing and jumping to the head of the line. Ernest Everett - who is he? What does he do? What real world experience does he bring to the table? The cat woman has not been playing nicely with others. In addition she has not investigated the abusive overtime and the padding of the overtime by public employees. It's early in the game and the candidates and the odds will change as time moves on.

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    1. Brian Howard BWAHAHAHAHA

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  10. If Lou runs, no one beats him.

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    1. - An accounting professor who cannot hold his administration to a budget.
      - Only comes out for ribbon cuttings.
      - Has only invested into downtown, meanwhile the neighborhoods suffocate.
      - Wasted $30,000 on a police commissioner.
      - Stood by and said hardly a word during one of the deadliest and crime-riddled summers we've had in years.
      - Selective discipline at city hall.
      - Bungled a snow- removal plan causing major traffic nightmares during the biggest snow season in years.

      Snooze you Lou-se!

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    2. There was less crime on the commissioners watch. And that's a fact Jack! No murders, no firebugs, moral was actually high.

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  11. Let's not forget closing Campbell Ave for a year, and going on 2 @ Hill & Spring Ave. In way over his head.

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    1. Busy in colonie

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    2. Busy part time teaching at Hvcc and bashing russ r

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  12. To all of these choices I say NO, NO, NO and NO. Many of us are not happy with the people currently running Troy. A better way to say it: we are fed up with inaction.

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  13. Funny Harry and his Merry Misfits Blow all the money destroys the whole City and leave's Lou Holding the bag.
    Lou don't have any cash left to work with any one half asleep can see this.

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  14. The city should open up a junk yard at the end of Douw St and deal only in cash!

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  15. Keep drinking from that Friedo McGrath fountain Bobby boy. Lou was left with over 5 mil in the reserve. That's a fact Jack. Hows the towing contract for your felonious brother going?

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  16. Vito cant even keep a Christmas tree up
    Ahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

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    1. If only they made Viagra for trees.

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    2. Because ur nutty ass took it down

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