Saturday, January 3, 2015

Odds for Republican mayoral candidates


As promised, here are the odds for Republican Party Troy mayoral candidates. The same criteria was used as for the Democrats: it’s not based on winning the election but on who will run and by run we mean publicly announce and begin the arduous task of raising money.
First a bit of history. Troy changed from a city manager form of government to that of a strong mayor in 1994. Mark Pattison narrowly defeated now Rensselaer County Executive Kathy Jimino in the 1995 election and was sworn in as mayor on Jan. 1 1996. The Democrat served the maximum eight years allowed under the charter – despite efforts to abolish term limits. Harry Tutunjian, a Republican, won the next election and the next and served for eight years. For the last three-plus years Democrat Mayor Lou Rosamilia has been at the helm.
The point is, despite the Democrats enjoying a huge enrollment advantage, Republicans do have a shot at the mayor’s office, particularly since the state allows the minor parties to cross endorse major party candidates.

So without further ado … the odds:

-Carmella Mantello: The former councilwoman has run for mayor twice before – once against Pattison and once four years ago against Rosamilia – and has all but announced her intentions to run this year too.
She narrowly lost an At-Large seat two years ago and has gotten some decent press by exposing irregularities at the less-than-cooperative Board of Elections. She has also criticized the Council for the budget mess it did nothing about and Rosamilia for the same. And perhaps most telling is the fact she recently sent a letter to Republican Party committee members pointing out the many shortcomings in city government as well as her belief there is a need for change.
That said, she had to go directly to the committee members rather than the leadership because, plainly put, they don’t like her much and probably won’t give her the nomination. The thing is, she doesn’t care, has nothing to lose and wants the job perhaps more than anyone in the city - even if it means getting it by first running a primary.
Odds of her running - 2 to 1.

-Jim Gordon: The councilman from District 1 said he has made a decision on a run for mayor but isn’t ready to go public with it yet.
He does have party support should he take the plunge and he has, over the years, made a solid name for himself in his district of Lansingburgh. Being in the minority, he can point his finger at the paper majority of Democrats on the Council and the administration for not doing anything to address the looming fiscal disaster. Close observers, however, know he and his Republican colleague teamed up with four Democrats to form the true majority of six on the same Council that punted the fiscal problems down the road. Let’s just say he has been less than stellar in his role as the minority check and balance watchdog.
Also, he would have to give up his $15,000 Council seat, a seat he won on his third try, to run for mayor and he works for Jimino. a mayoral run would bring her office at least a little bit into the spotlight and that’s something the county executive would rather not see happen.
Odds of him running - 5 to 1.

-Mark McGrath: The former city councilman from District 2 staunchly denies any knowledge of an effort to recruit him into the campaign with “Draft McGrath” signs placed around the city this fall. But, there is no denying he got a kick out of it.
He also got a kick out of being a watchdog on the Council for eight years whether or not it was his own party he was watch dogging or that of the Democrats. He was also elected four times in a district that on paper is a Democratic seat so he obviously appeals to voters across party lines.
He will likely not, however, have the party’s support should he run for mayor – he was recently asked to run for an At Large seat. He responded to that offer with a question: “If I’m running city-wide why don’t I run for mayor?”
A city-wide campaign, though, would take about $150,000. While McGrath does enjoy mixing it up in the press, and the ego-stroke that comes with it, he doesn’t have the temperament or the skill to run the nuts and bolts of a campaign – which includes raising money and coordinating volunteers. A fractured party will do nothing to help that crucial effort. Plus, he is enrolled in the Conservative Party and would need Republican Party permission to even get on the ballot.
Odds of him running – 7 to 1

-Harry Tutunjian: There is no secret the former mayor loved the job and would like to run again but given losses for Council and Legislature the popularity he once enjoyed has evidently waned. The party knows that too and will likely not give him the nod for anything outside another run at Council.
He does, though, have a base of support among the party faithful and does appeal to more moderate voters across party lines. He rightly points to the hypocrisy of some of his critics who would have tarred and feathered him for some of the recent shenanigans - illegal sidewalks, shady demolitions and general incompetence – but have turned a blind eye to Rosamilia and company.
Odds of him running – 15 to 1

-Dan Crawley: The deputy mayor under Tutunjian is currently the executive secretary of the Troy Housing Authority. While his name has been floated as a potential mayoral candidate Crawley doesn’t like the spotlight and would prefer to exercise his influence from behind the scenes.
He has cleaned up the local organization that is funded with federal money and has historically been riddled with scandal and controversy but doesn’t have that much time until he can retire. He may run sometime down the road but likely not this year.
Odds of him running – 20 to 1

-Kevin McCashion: The mad tweeter who coined the phrase #troycrazy has been written up in the Times Union, the Business Review and has appeared on Talk 1300 to give his unique and sometimes off the wall take on all things Troy.
He probably has more enemies than friends and the party wouldn’t even support him for the thankless job of city chair so there is no way he gets the nod for mayor.
But, he did submit a bid to develop the old City Hall Site on Monument Square so there is really no telling what he will do.
Odds of him running – 30 to 1  

Odds for the rest of the field – which includes Councilman Dean Bodnar, THA Comptroller Deb Witkowski, Police Chief John Tedesco and Kevin Vandenburgh stand at 50 to 1.



114 comments:

  1. Carmella again? The party has to be insane to let her try again for mayor. The idea needs to die. Let her primary if she thinks she can do it. I am sure she'll make enough mistakes to lose.

    McGrath appeals to people across party lines. R's are dumb if they don't see this. He won in north central, he can win anywhere. He'd pull the 'burgh too. and I'd say he would do pretty well in the rest of the city.

    Would love to see Lou debate Mark.

    Who ever put those signs out are awesome. I still want one for my lawn.

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    1. I agree 9;54. Please - no more Carmella and her phony bullshit. She can't win for Gods sake.

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    2. "Would love to see Lou debate Mark."? Lou would rather go on vacation with Rodney.

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    3. Lou would lose the debate, hands down!

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  2. Gordon didn't simply punt the problems down the road. He declined to vote for King Louie's crappy plan that would have laid off 8 cops in a city with tons of shootings and stabbings, as well as 10 firefighters when we have a firebug on the loose. Big difference. http://www.troyrecord.com//20141124/troy-city-council-expects-to-adopt-rosamilias-proposed-2015-budget-without-additional-recommendations

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    1. And what was Jim Gordon's plan? Oh that's right, he didn't have one.

      If you let a so-called crappy plan go into effect because you don't have the balls to come up with anything else, you ARE punting the problem down the road.

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    2. If Gordon the sweaty suit had to take a stand on anything big he would wet himself in fear. Too bad TFD cant use him to dampen fires in the Burgh.

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    3. Whoa Stranger. Stop right there. Council prez Wiltshire asked Mayor Lou to ask dept. heads impact of a 3% cut in their budgets.
      Fire Chief and Police Chief repsonded with cuts needed to comply with Council's request. This plan was never the administration's idea.It was Wiltshire, Gordon and their renegades who concocted the thought but still try to blame the mayor for layoffs which never happened.

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    4. McGrath wouldn't be doing much else for the budget or for dampening the fires in the Burgh. His dealings are behind closed doors using smoke and mirrors. The jig is up.

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    5. Go ahead with layoffs. Begin with the non resident employees, that will get you at least six digit savings. Then layoff the employees that never passed civil service exam but miraculously got 46-75k paying positions, THEN lay off others if needed, but you won't need to because we will be well into the black.CORRUPTION is THAT bad.

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    6. Penny b for mayor

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    7. Penny Bashfords thinking of running?

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  3. Mcgrath is an idiot, I am not a Dem but would vote for one over him!

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    1. Midget throwing in Powers Park? Might bring in some tax revenue

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    2. Midget Tossing contest don't you mean

      Oh by the way I just love you Anonymous bloggers it boggles my mind

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    3. Bobby go take your meds. Please.

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  4. Crawley sold his house moved to Brunswick. Please someone new run.

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    1. Seems lots of fancy Brunswick residents know what is best for Troy. Transparent.

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    2. Fancy? No, they are crooks. Double standard bullies.

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    3. 5:58-- Read between the lines on that one, just saying.

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  5. What happened with the county dispatch story unless I missed it I haven't seen anything mentioned.

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    1. Covered up-- As usual!!

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  6. It's a sad day for Troy, with the exception of Tutunjian and Pattison all of the other named potential candidates clearly do not have the ability to run the city.

    If you own property in Troy it's time to get out!

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    1. That's what Dan Crawley did, of course that didn't stop him from sucking on the Troy tit at the Housing Authority.

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    2. Tutunjian capable please.

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    3. How about Harry's destroying a perfectly good park and ripping out the perfectly good trees and building another as soon as he had his visions of grandeur to get his name on something to remind us how he squandered Millions !~~!

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    4. This man is delusional. Bill dunne and the dire wolf are to blame for bedrock river front park

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    5. Harry gets Duped By Garden way for a million dollars that we have to pay for so Garden Way won't close
      They get the million dollars and close any way
      Ahaaaaaaaaaaaa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

      Nice Touch Harry !~~!

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  7. I'd love to see any of them debate Crazy McCashion

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    1. Ha! It would be hilarious.

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    2. I love how McCashion is taking karate after getting his ass kicked how many times?

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    3. Mcashions first order of business's rename frear park poppy Petes put put paradise municipal country club

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    4. Mccashion a second order of business. Dump dunne morris and monica faster than Peter downs a coors light

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    5. Good for him! Better watch yourself since you know this. Hi-yah!!

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    6. McCashion's third order of business. Checking the escort ads on Craigslist while peeing on Rodney's new $14,000 table

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  8. Vandenburgh? I'll go 50 to 1 odds the fat bastard can't get his big ass out of the booth at Famous Lunch.

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    1. Kevin ......and you still let Mcgrath in your pool!

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    2. Clean the hair traps!

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    3. He's like a Brillo pad in the pool. He cleans the sides up

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  9. no no no! Not Carmella "Talking Point" Mantello! Especially after Lou "Empty Suit" Rosamilla. We could really use a human being in office.

    DRAFT MCGRATH!

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    1. Give it up, Mark. You're only supporter is a tinfoil hat tweeting midget who thinks Ron Paul broadcasts through his tooth fillings.

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    2. Empty suit? It looks quite full to me

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  10. Another day, another fire in Lansingburgh. Has Jim Gordon done anything for his district other than pose for cameras on county taxpayer time?

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    1. I know, its cutting in to Wonder Woman's camera time.

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    2. Ask Superhero, saw him flying over Burgh about an hour ago. Surprised no one mentioned the sound on facebook. He was singing mighty loud--- Here I come to save the dayyyyyyyy!!

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    3. How the hell is HE suppose to stop forensics. People act Like councilmen are super human and can stop these things.

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    4. Gordon so scared of running against K Mcgrath he's running for mayor. After two years of fake outrage and watching his district burn. Good luck Jim, you;re about to get the thrashing of your life!

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  11. I was gonna suggest Vito but then remembered he can't even keep a Christmas tree up

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    1. Powers park is 420 second ave. now I get it

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    2. That's why its Vito's sanctuary for b list media

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    3. That's fucking funny!

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    4. Puff, puff, pass shithead!

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    5. Powers Park is like SPAC for Section 8.

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    6. Section.8 spac. Lol

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    7. SPAC for Section 8

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  12. Thanks for the input dunne. Your one to talk does your ass leave your office?

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  13. Have the Tutunjians paid their back taxes yet? Now that they BOTH have county patronage jobs? Has Mrs. T passed that civil service exam she failed the first time?

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    1. Have you been interviewed by the epa yet commissioner dunne?

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    2. I heard Jimino is creating a county tit job for the Tutunjian bulldog. Why not? It's smarter than Harry

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    3. Commissioner Dunne just said tit...

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  14. This city and county for that matter will never get better until we get leaders who work for the best of the people and not the best for their parties

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    1. Like that will ever happen in Troy.

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  15. Can anyone find out how it is possible to collect full pay and benefits for three years while not reporting to work. Don't the taxpayers pay his salar

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  16. Not a winner in the bunch. Lou runs, he wins.

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    1. Shhhhhhh-- Lou is sleeping.

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  17. Heard that Bob Ashe has been reaching out to the committee about running for Sheriff. Some have even indicated that they would support him.

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    1. Bobby has been showing up at DEMOCRATIC events most likely trying to shore up support for either or both sides. Run Mr. A., RUN!!! This time, he runs, he wins!...Dan Briggs

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  18. City hall employeesJanuary 4, 2015 at 2:24 PM

    We would love to have harry back

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    1. Or do you just want the hairy back

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  19. We can only hope the next mayor brings back russ reeves a compItant engineer and get rid of this loafer and jeans wearing joke that drives home to colonie each night. Been here a year and accomplished what?

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    1. That will be the first move of rodney carmella harry or jim Gordon should they win. Long live russ reeves pe

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    2. How about that bridge in South Troy and all that steel sitting right in Albany
      Can't make this shit up.

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  20. Flash Gordon is desperate to run for anything other than re-election in D1. Unfortunately Flash, your party knows you'll get your ass kicked in whatever race you run.

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    1. Careful Superhero-- you still have dirty laundry in your closet.

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    2. The one thing that Jim Gordon did was put the kibosh on the towing contract that would have allowed another junkyard in North Troy. I know the last councilman was behind the plan to open the junkyard behind a pre-school and across from the Snowman. On that alone Jim you are a hero. Thank you.

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    3. Bring out the laundry. Jim's not running again in D1, he wants to be mayor. LOL

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    4. Prefer Jim over Beaver Clever anyday

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  21. All of the GOP choices suck. The party itself sucks, and they can't win in Troy. Why waste time talking about it.

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    1. GOP can't win anywhere except Renss. Co...DA, judges, county-wide, etc.

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    2. Where was the big Dem swearing in thing this year? Oh yeah, the Dems didn't win anything...

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  22. The problem is almost all candidates owe something to someone, putting the residents of Troy second to their allegiances. Campana is the only person on either lists that has always put people before politics, which is why people in neither party structure like him.

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    1. Ya saw all the info from Troy Housing. Girl gave Clems dad an apt illegally and the she in turn would rent dads house from Clem. ANYONE can foil the info from THA. He put his dad (people) before politics and the laws.

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    2. I thought Mark Mcgrath was the only one to put put the residents of troy second to their allegiances.

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    3. I have full support for Campana

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    4. Clems a Saint. That's why they killed the indictment.

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    5. Let's look at a Clem administration:

      Robert (I can even make Pete Ryan look good) Martiniano as Deputy Mayor.

      Mike Loporto as Planning Commisioner

      Clem's brother Underdog as Director of Operations.

      Ickey Mason as the new police commissioner

      Robert (cuckoo) Cox as Director of public Info.

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    6. Looks pretty good to me Mark M

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  23. Hey Mark stop posting Draft McGrath. The only reason you won is because everyone thought you were related to Judge McGrath.

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  24. Would love to hear John Browns real thoughts about Eddy Macs "vindicated" tattoo.

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  25. Carmella actually had a job at the Thruway and now an Engineering firm and has been successful at both and so didn't Clem prove himself in his career. They are both good people and aren't in debt to anyone. I would vote for either. I have voted for both in the past. This is what we need honesty and integrity, not bickering and failures. I bet they would run and respect each other, bring them on and may the best one win!

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    1. Agreed, the only serious problem neither is qualified to run the city, they're just not smart enough.

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  26. Carmella..jezzus she cant take a hint...Nobody but you and your happy hour buddies wants you Carmie...pad your state pension somewhere else..how many times do you have to get your ass kicked before you get it..Wow definition of crazy is doing the same thing over and over agian and expecting different results..ladies and gentlemen, your Troy GOP!

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  27. So the real people controlling the GOP (wojick and tutunjian) want Jim Gordon to run for mayors office. Carmella who is not liked by the powers that be in the GOP wants to primary Gordon. What has Jim Gordon done? He's part of the worst council Troy has ever had. He barely won his own district this past election and got spanked when he tried running city wide. He's a flip flopper on everything including crime in Troy. I say give Carmella a shot. She turned NYS Canal around and look at it now, it's back in shambles. Ya can't vote for Lou because the guy can't even balance a budget. If ya vote for Rodney that would be like putting DeBlasio in as mayor. Cops hate him, Firemen hate him. Democrats hate him. So I say vote Carmella. What do we gotta lose?

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    1. How about Debbie Witkowski.....budgets were in balance when see worked for the city!

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    2. 7;59- she sat on the coucil when Dworsky the genius set us on this path of financial disaster. And please enlighten us on what exactly she's done for Troy. Run a neighborhood group? Get involved to better her own neighborhood? Volunteer for parade committees, or do toy drives? Build a spectacular monument in memory of America's lworst tragedy? That's only part of Gordons public service resume. ABC - Anybody But Carmella - another do nothing big talker.

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    3. Any updates on Joe Buchanon (former treasurer ) paying back the tax payers of Troy 400-500k.

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  28. Democrats everywhere cheer upon hearing Jim Gordon is the GOP's choice to run for mayor. What are these guys smoking?? He'll get his ass kicked worse than he did when he tried to run at large.

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    1. One good thing when he looses we get rid of him forever he is done put a fork in him.

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  29. After reading Franco's blog I felt it was time to update what the real chances of each candidate for this years mayors race are. Let me begin by saying that this is now a three person race...period. Gordon would have trouble even keeping his own seat. Wiltshire, Kopka, and the rest have blown themselves up.The three people who seem to have the nerve to run are Carmela Mantello, Mark McGrath and whoever the Democratic candidate is. That is the wildcard because this Wade fellow is out scouting for someone to replace current mayor Louis Rosamelia who has had a hard time during his tenure.
    So with that said Rosamelia or the democratic candidate 2-1 Mantello 4-1 McGrath. Signed Vinny Vegas


















    l

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    1. Jim Gordon' s done such a pathetic job as councilman he shouldn't even be running his shitbird meetings anymore. What has he done for his district? He's got his head so far up Tedesco's ass he can't see Lansingburgh burning to the ground.

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    2. Sour grapes Superhero? I'm positive you and Wonder Woman would love to facilitate Jim's meetings, you did so well with your other defunct group-- LOL!

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  30. The whole system is a dismal failure wojick is just another loud mouth bully we don't need the likes of him to ram what he wants through the system with sneaky behind closed doors Politics.

    This was rite from the mouth of one of tutunjian's operatives he let his underlings do want ever they wanted as long as he was in power his eight years have put Troy back into the stone age for 32 years at least

    Mark McGrath would just be another step backwards into oblivion obviously.

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    1. Heard he's going to let people braid his back hair at the Farmer's Market

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    2. Me first. Love palvic

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  31. The best thing about fat Harry us in that he never had any tolerance for.pain which made him a useful snitch in high school. Other than that.... ?
    ......Capt. Loomis Birkhead

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  32. Bauer for Mayor!!!

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  33. Mark McGrath is everything to the Republican Party that Rodney Wiltshire is to the Democratic Party. Run Mark so you can be sent away with Rodney.

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  34. The repubs have the secret jay vandenburg weapon they will unleash this fall Watch out bobby he's running at large

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  35. The Sheriff's race is going to heat up.

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  36. Give Carmella a chance she has the experience running a large agency and I have never seen a person with more passion for our city.

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  37. I agree with anonymous 01/22 at 4:53 AM

    Carmella is a worker and a leader I saw it working with her at the Canal Corp. One more thing she has morals and is honest there will be no scandals with Ms. Mantello!

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