And now for odds on potential Republican candidates

The boys in Vegas said it was no easy task to put together a list of potential Republican candidates, and actually chuckled over some of them.

Whoever chooses to run – and that may be enough to get the nomination – will be at a distinct enrollment disadvantage to whoever ends up being the Democratic Party nominee.

MCGRATH

Yes, voters in Troy have ousted entire slates of candidates because they didn’t like the way things were going, and while things are going close to that ouster threshold I’m not convinced they are there yet. Close, but not yet. The Democrats must be thinking along the same lines too since the party’s front man by default, Mayor Lou Rosamalia, just hired a new spokesman and you really don’t do that unless you feel the need to shake things up a bit.

Anyway, without further ado, according to Vegas, the odds on potential Republicans ending up being the candidate come November:

GORDON

-Mark McGrath, 5-1: The former eight-year councilman is probably the party’s strongest candidate given he won handily in a Democratic district four times thanks, in part, to pragmatism that crosses party lines. He also knows city government, has name recognition and will not have to give up a job or another elected office should he choose to run. That said, it will take a lot of convincing for him to throw his hat in the ring.

-Jim Gordon, 7-1: I think the first-term councilman is doing a decent job of being the loyal opposition for the minority caucus of two. He has decent name recognition but had a difficult time winning in the ‘Burgh until this time around when Kevin McGrath decided not to run. Since the Council is also up next November he would have to give up his seat to run for mayor if he chooses. I think he has his eye on it but it would be a risky move by him and the Republicans.  

MANTELLO

-Carmella Mantello, 9-1: The former councilwoman and former Council and mayoral candidate would likely want to give City Hall another run but don’t expect the GOP to be too keen on that idea. She is, however, a hard working candidate and is nearly guaranteed a respectable showing so if the Republicans decide to punt next year and concentrate on the Council, which is a possibility, she may get the nod by default.

-Dan Crawley, 10-1: The former deputy mayor and current executive secretary of the Troy Housing Authority would make a solid mayor but I don’t know if he has it in him to run a campaign as the front man. Furthermore, I don’t know if he wants to leave the cocoon that is THA and jump into the mainstream spotlight. But, his name has been floated and as I said, it wasn’t easy coming up with a list of potentials.



TUTUNJIAN

-Harry Tutunjian, 12-1: The former mayor and councilman would probably like another four years in office but he comes off two city wide losses for Legislature so for him to win this time around – during a presidential year when turnout is generally higher which means more Democrats at the polls in Troy – is a tough sell. Not that Tutunjian had a bad eight-year run as mayor, but if the GOP backs him this time you know there is nobody else.



TEDESCO

-John Tedesco, 15-1: I have no inside knowledge that the police chief would want to give up being police chief, move into the city and run for mayor but if he did he would make a pretty good candidate. Despite Rosamilia’s move appointing a police commissioner Tedesco came out looking pretty good in the end. Again, his name was floated to me so I included him.

-Debbie Witkowski, 15-1: The current comptroller at the Troy Housing Authority and former city comptroller would be a great candidate if they GOP can convince her to run, which is a longshot. She knows and respects the political game but under Democratic and Republican administrations in City Hall, and now at the THA, she has managed to stay above the fray. While she would be a solid candidate, I’d be surprised if the GOP convinced her to run.

 

-Richard “Buddy” McAvoy, 20-1: As I was tying this up someone pitched the deputy chief’s name and since candidates are scarce I figured I would throw it in. I learned too he was considered for sheriff before the party picked Jack Mahar so he has a political bent to him and unlike Tedesco he lives in the city. Outside of that, I really don’t know what else to say about him.